Tasmania · Today

Shipstern Bluff

Updated Wed, Sep 23, 9:40 AM GMT+10

When to go

2:00 PM–4:00 PM

Looks good · Low confidence

5.3–5.6 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 2.1 kt · direction unavailable

Forecast details

Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

3:00 PM–5:00 PM · Australia/Hobart
Light wind · up to 2.1 kt · reported gusts up to 9.3 kt
Offshore waves: 5.2–5.4 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 23, 9:30 AM GMT+10. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 1.3 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 0 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind NW 3.7 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellSSW 6.2 ft @ 9sValid 2026-09-23 10:00 · Australia/HobartMarine grid -43.2083, 147.7084 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea6.3 ft @ 10.9sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 10:00 · Australia/Hobart

Model windNW 3.7 ktunavailableValid 2026-09-23 10:00 · Australia/Hobart

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Shipstern Bluff
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	NE 4.5 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 8.3 ft @ 9s
1 AM	NNW 7.2 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 8.0 ft @ 9s
2 AM	NNW 7 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 7.9 ft @ 9s
3 AM	NNW 6 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 7.8 ft @ 9s
4 AM	NNW 5.5 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 7.7 ft @ 9s
5 AM	NNW 4.9 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 7.4 ft @ 9s
6 AM	NNW 5.1 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 7.2 ft @ 9s
7 AM	N 5.2 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 7.0 ft @ 9s
8 AM	NNW 4.2 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 6.7 ft @ 9s
9 AM	NW 3.5 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 6.5 ft @ 9s
10 AM	NW 3.7 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 6.2 ft @ 9s
11 AM	NW 3.6 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 6.0 ft @ 9s
Noon	NNW 3.4 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.7 ft @ 9s
1 PM	NNW 2.3 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.4 ft @ 9s
2 PM	NNW 1.4 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.3 ft @ 9s
3 PM	NNW 1.6 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.2 ft @ 9s
4 PM	WNW 2.1 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.1 ft @ 9s
5 PM	NNW 1.4 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SW 5.0 ft @ 9s
6 PM	NNE 4.3 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.9 ft @ 9s
7 PM	N 4.8 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.7 ft @ 9s
8 PM	NW 2.2 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.8 ft @ 9s
9 PM	WSW 1.5 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.8 ft @ 9s
10 PM	S 3.5 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.9 ft @ 9s
11 PM	SE 5.3 ktunavailable	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.8 ft @ 9s

12 AMUnavailable

WindNE 4.5 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 8.3 ft @ 9s

1 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 7.2 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 8.0 ft @ 9s

2 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 7 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 7.9 ft @ 9s

3 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 6 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 7.8 ft @ 9s

4 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 5.5 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 7.7 ft @ 9s

5 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 4.9 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 7.4 ft @ 9s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 5.1 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 7.2 ft @ 9s

7 AMUnavailable

WindN 5.2 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 7.0 ft @ 9s

8 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 4.2 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 6.7 ft @ 9s

9 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3.5 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 6.5 ft @ 9s

10 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3.7 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 6.2 ft @ 9s

11 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3.6 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 6.0 ft @ 9s

NoonUnavailable

WindNNW 3.4 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.7 ft @ 9s

1 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 2.3 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.4 ft @ 9s

2 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 1.4 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.3 ft @ 9s

3 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 1.6 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.2 ft @ 9s

4 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 2.1 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.1 ft @ 9s

5 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 1.4 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 5.0 ft @ 9s

6 PMUnavailable

WindNNE 4.3 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.9 ft @ 9s

7 PMUnavailable

WindN 4.8 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.7 ft @ 9s

8 PMUnavailable

WindNW 2.2 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.8 ft @ 9s

9 PMUnavailable

WindWSW 1.5 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.8 ft @ 9s

10 PMUnavailable

WindS 3.5 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.9 ft @ 9s

11 PMUnavailable

WindSE 5.3 ktunavailableTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.8 ft @ 9s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Reef break. Named beach/break area coordinate from published map; not a coastline survey. Coastline orientation unresolved; wind relationship withheld.

Mapped spot coordinate: -43.1995, 147.7183.

Tasmania · south · Coastline orientation unresolved · Location provenance

Model request point: Shipstern Bluff (-43.1995, 147.7183). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 2/5 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier C · AU_OTHER · spot-level model point

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Marine Forecasts/AUSWAVE
Official wind, sea, swell, warnings, and wave model maps; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
Australian Ocean Data Network / IMOS
National wave observations and ocean datasets; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
WorldTides API
Tide predictions and station lookup; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 9:30 AM GMT+10
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 9:30 AM GMT+10
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.