Vancouver Island · Today

Sombrio Beach

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 4:30 PM PDT

When to go

Around 7:00 PM

Looks good · Low confidence

2.8–2.8 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 5.7 kt · cross-shore

Forecast details

Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

5:00 PM–6:00 PM · America/Vancouver
Unfavorable wind · up to 8.1 kt · reported gusts up to 12.6 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. The selected wind is unfavorable for this break.
Offshore waves: 2.8–2.9 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 4:30 PM PDT. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 3.0 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 0 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind NW 8.1 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellW 2.9 ft @ 9sValid 2026-09-22 17:00 · America/VancouverMarine grid 48.4583, -124.2083 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea2.9 ft @ 10.3sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-22 17:00 · America/Vancouver

Model windNW 8.1 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-22 17:00 · America/Vancouver2.4 kt offshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Sombrio Beach
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	NW 6.2 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.7 ft @ 10s
1 AM	NW 6.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.6 ft @ 10s
2 AM	NW 4.9 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.5 ft @ 10s
3 AM	NW 5.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.5 ft @ 10s
4 AM	NW 3.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.5 ft @ 10s
5 AM	NW 5 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.4 ft @ 10s
6 AM	NW 4.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.4 ft @ 9s
7 AM	NW 3.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.4 ft @ 9s
8 AM	NW 2.9 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.4 ft @ 9s
9 AM	WNW 3.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.3 ft @ 9s
10 AM	WNW 7.5 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.3 ft @ 9s
11 AM	WNW 8.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.3 ft @ 9s
Noon	WNW 7.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.2 ft @ 9s
1 PM	WNW 5.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.1 ft @ 9s
2 PM	WNW 7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.1 ft @ 9s
3 PM	NW 9.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.0 ft @ 9s
4 PM	NW 8.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.0 ft @ 9s
5 PM	NW 8.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.9 ft @ 9s
6 PM	NW 7.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.8 ft @ 9s
7 PM	NNW 5.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.8 ft @ 9s
8 PM	NNW 5.4 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.7 ft @ 9s
9 PM	NNW 5 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.6 ft @ 9s
10 PM	NNW 3.9 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.6 ft @ 9s
11 PM	NNW 3.6 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.6 ft @ 9s

12 AMUnavailable

WindNW 6.2 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.7 ft @ 10s

1 AMUnavailable

WindNW 6.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.6 ft @ 10s

2 AMUnavailable

WindNW 4.9 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.5 ft @ 10s

3 AMUnavailable

WindNW 5.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.5 ft @ 10s

4 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.5 ft @ 10s

5 AMUnavailable

WindNW 5 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.4 ft @ 10s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNW 4.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.4 ft @ 9s

7 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.4 ft @ 9s

8 AMUnavailable

WindNW 2.9 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.4 ft @ 9s

9 AMUnavailable

WindWNW 3.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.3 ft @ 9s

10 AMUnavailable

WindWNW 7.5 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.3 ft @ 9s

11 AMUnavailable

WindWNW 8.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.3 ft @ 9s

NoonUnavailable

WindWNW 7.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.2 ft @ 9s

1 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 5.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.1 ft @ 9s

2 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.1 ft @ 9s

3 PMUnavailable

WindNW 9.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.0 ft @ 9s

4 PMUnavailable

WindNW 8.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.0 ft @ 9s

5 PMUnavailable

WindNW 8.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.9 ft @ 9s

6 PMUnavailable

WindNW 7.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.8 ft @ 9s

7 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 5.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.8 ft @ 9s

8 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 5.4 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.7 ft @ 9s

9 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 5 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.6 ft @ 9s

10 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 3.9 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.6 ft @ 9s

11 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 3.6 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.6 ft @ 9s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach and reef break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 48.45, -124.17.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 202.5° · Location provenance

Model request point: Sombrio Beach (48.45, -124.17). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 2/5 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier B · CANADA · spot-level model point

Environment Canada MSC GeoMet
ECCC publishes combined-seas wave heights for West Coast Vancouver Island South, but no wave-height forecast for Juan de Fuca Strait - west entrance.UnavailableNo source time
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Wave Data
No ECCC wave buoy is assigned to the Juan de Fuca Strait spots; La Perouse Bank observations apply only to the same-exposure outer-Pacific spots.UnavailableNo source time
Canadian Hydrographic Service IWLS API
Tide predictions, water levels, and station metadata; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 4:30 PM PDT
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 4:30 PM PDT
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.