Baja Sur · Today

Scorpion Bay

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 4:30 PM GMT-7

When to go

Around 6:00 PM

Windy · Low confidence

4.5–4.5 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 13.6 kt · offshore

Forecast details

Wind blowing out to sea should help the waves stay clean.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

5:00 PM–6:00 PM · America/Mazatlan
Unfavorable wind · up to 15.3 kt · reported gusts up to 19.8 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. The selected wind is unfavorable for this break.
Offshore waves: 4.5–4.5 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 4:30 PM GMT-7. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 4.8 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 0 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind WNW 15.3 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 12sValid 2026-09-22 17:00 · America/MazatlanMarine grid 26.2083, -112.5417 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea4.5 ft @ 7.5sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-22 17:00 · America/Mazatlan

Model windWNW 15.3 ktoffshoreValid 2026-09-22 17:00 · America/Mazatlan15.3 kt offshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

SEMAR Costa centro/sur occidental de la Península de Baja California marine forecast

Current official 24/48-hour PDF includes coastal wind, wave-height (ft), and visibility tables. Open the bulletin for its tabular values; PDF values are not transcribed into breaking-surf estimates.

Official 24/48-hour Pacific marine bulletin covering 2026-09-22Costa centro/sur occidental de la Península de Baja California; coastal marine wave height from the shoreline to 24 nautical miles, not breaking surfFile updated Sep 22, 7:13 AM GMT-7

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Scorpion Bay
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	NW 4.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.4 ft @ 6s
1 AM	NW 5.1 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	W 2.2 ft @ 7s
2 AM	NW 5.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 2.2 ft @ 8s
3 AM	NW 5.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 2.1 ft @ 10s
4 AM	NW 6.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 2.1 ft @ 11s
5 AM	NNW 6.5 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.0 ft @ 12s
6 AM	NW 5.7 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 12s
7 AM	NW 6.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 12s
8 AM	NW 6.7 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 12s
9 AM	NW 6.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 2.3 ft @ 12s
10 AM	WNW 6 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 2.2 ft @ 13s
11 AM	WNW 12.8 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 2.1 ft @ 13s
Noon	WNW 15.6 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 2.2 ft @ 13s
1 PM	WNW 15.6 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 2.3 ft @ 13s
2 PM	WNW 17.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 13s
3 PM	WNW 16.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 12s
4 PM	WNW 15.7 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 12s
5 PM	WNW 15.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 12s
6 PM	WNW 13.6 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 12s
7 PM	WNW 11.1 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 12s
8 PM	WNW 9.9 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 12s
9 PM	WNW 9.7 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 2.6 ft @ 10s
10 PM	WNW 7.8 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 2.8 ft @ 7s
11 PM	WNW 8.4 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	W 3.0 ft @ 5s

12 AMUnavailable

WindNW 4.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.4 ft @ 6s

1 AMUnavailable

WindNW 5.1 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 2.2 ft @ 7s

2 AMUnavailable

WindNW 5.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 2.2 ft @ 8s

3 AMUnavailable

WindNW 5.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 2.1 ft @ 10s

4 AMUnavailable

WindNW 6.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 2.1 ft @ 11s

5 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 6.5 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.0 ft @ 12s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNW 5.7 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 12s

7 AMUnavailable

WindNW 6.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 12s

8 AMUnavailable

WindNW 6.7 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 12s

9 AMUnavailable

WindNW 6.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 2.3 ft @ 12s

10 AMUnavailable

WindWNW 6 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 2.2 ft @ 13s

11 AMUnavailable

WindWNW 12.8 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 2.1 ft @ 13s

NoonUnavailable

WindWNW 15.6 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 2.2 ft @ 13s

1 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 15.6 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 2.3 ft @ 13s

2 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 17.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 13s

3 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 16.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 12s

4 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 15.7 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 12s

5 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 15.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 12s

6 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 13.6 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 12s

7 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 11.1 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 12s

8 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 9.9 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 12s

9 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 9.7 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 2.6 ft @ 10s

10 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 7.8 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 2.8 ft @ 7s

11 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 8.4 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellW 3.0 ft @ 5s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Point break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 26.23, -112.5.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 112.5° · Location provenance

Model request point: Scorpion Bay (26.23, -112.5). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 3/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier D · MEXICO · spot-level model point

SEMAR Costa centro/sur occidental de la Península de Baja California marine forecast
SEMAR Costa centro/sur occidental de la Península de Baja California marine forecast; Costa centro/sur occidental de la Península de Baja California; coastal marine wave height from the shoreline to 24 nautical miles, not breaking surfCurrentSep 22, 7:13 AM GMT-7
The Buoy API
No current same-exposure official Mexican wave observation with station identity, coordinates, timestamp, and units was verified.UnavailableNo source time
WorldTides API
SEMAR publishes 2026 numerical tide-table PDFs for relevant ports, but no Worker-compatible PDF parser, station-distance assignment, datum contract, and timezone-safe event parser is connected.UnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 4:30 PM GMT-7
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 4:30 PM GMT-7
Copernicus Marine Global Ocean Waves
Independent wave-model backend and cross-check; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.