Nayarit and Colima · Today

San Pancho

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 5:40 PM CST

When to go

5:41 PM–6:00 PM

Looks good · Low confidence

2.0–2.0 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 5.4 kt · direction unavailable

Forecast details

Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

At 6:00 PM · America/Bahia_Banderas
Light wind · up to 5.4 kt · reported gusts up to 8.6 kt
Offshore waves: 2.0–2.0 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 5:30 PM CST. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 4.9 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 0 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind SW 5.4 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellSW 1.4 ft @ 12sValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Bahia_BanderasMarine grid 20.8750, -105.4583 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea2.0 ft @ 10.7sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Bahia_Banderas

Model windSW 5.4 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Bahia_Banderas3.1 kt onshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

SEMAR Costa del Pacífico Central marine forecast

Current official 24/48-hour PDF includes coastal wind, wave-height (ft), and visibility tables. Open the bulletin for its tabular values; PDF values are not transcribed into breaking-surf estimates.

Official 24/48-hour Pacific marine bulletin covering 2026-09-22Costa del Pacífico Central; coastal marine wave height from the shoreline to 24 nautical miles, not breaking surfFile updated Sep 22, 8:13 AM CST

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for San Pancho
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	NNE 2.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.2 ft @ 14s
1 AM	NNE 2.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.2 ft @ 14s
2 AM	WSW 7.3 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.3 ft @ 14s
3 AM	NNE 1.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.3 ft @ 14s
4 AM	ENE 3.4 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
5 AM	ESE 2.7 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
6 AM	NE 4.5 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.5 ft @ 13s
7 AM	ENE 3.5 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.5 ft @ 12s
8 AM	NNE 3.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.5 ft @ 13s
9 AM	N 3.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.5 ft @ 13s
10 AM	NE 2.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.5 ft @ 13s
11 AM	N 2.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
Noon	WNW 3.7 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
1 PM	WNW 5.1 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
2 PM	WSW 3.7 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
3 PM	WSW 4.2 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
4 PM	WSW 4.3 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
5 PM	WSW 5.2 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 13s
6 PM	SW 5.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 12s
7 PM	NNW 6.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 12s
8 PM	SE 2.5 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 12s
9 PM	SSE 4.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 11s
10 PM	SSE 3.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 11s
11 PM	S 4.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 1.4 ft @ 11s

12 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 2.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.2 ft @ 14s

1 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 2.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.2 ft @ 14s

2 AMUnavailable

WindWSW 7.3 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.3 ft @ 14s

3 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 1.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.3 ft @ 14s

4 AMUnavailable

WindENE 3.4 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

5 AMUnavailable

WindESE 2.7 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNE 4.5 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.5 ft @ 13s

7 AMUnavailable

WindENE 3.5 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.5 ft @ 12s

8 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 3.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.5 ft @ 13s

9 AMUnavailable

WindN 3.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.5 ft @ 13s

10 AMUnavailable

WindNE 2.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.5 ft @ 13s

11 AMUnavailable

WindN 2.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

NoonUnavailable

WindWNW 3.7 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

1 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 5.1 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

2 PMUnavailable

WindWSW 3.7 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

3 PMUnavailable

WindWSW 4.2 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

4 PMUnavailable

WindWSW 4.3 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

5 PMUnavailable

WindWSW 5.2 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 13s

6 PMUnavailable

WindSW 5.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 12s

7 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 6.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 12s

8 PMUnavailable

WindSE 2.5 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 12s

9 PMUnavailable

WindSSE 4.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 11s

10 PMUnavailable

WindSSE 3.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 11s

11 PMUnavailable

WindS 4.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 1.4 ft @ 11s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Reef break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 20.9, -105.42.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 270° · Location provenance

Model request point: San Pancho (20.9, -105.42). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 3/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier D · MEXICO · spot-level model point

SEMAR Costa del Pacífico Central marine forecast
SEMAR Costa del Pacífico Central marine forecast; Costa del Pacífico Central; coastal marine wave height from the shoreline to 24 nautical miles, not breaking surfCurrentSep 22, 8:13 AM CST
The Buoy API
No current same-exposure official Mexican wave observation with station identity, coordinates, timestamp, and units was verified.UnavailableNo source time
WorldTides API
SEMAR publishes 2026 numerical tide-table PDFs for relevant ports, but no Worker-compatible PDF parser, station-distance assignment, datum contract, and timezone-safe event parser is connected.UnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 5:30 PM CST
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 5:30 PM CST
Copernicus Marine Global Ocean Waves
Independent wave-model backend and cross-check; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.