Wellington South Coast · Today

Lyall Bay

Updated Wed, Sep 23, 11:40 AM GMT+12

When to go

5:00 PM–6:00 PM

Strong wind — difficult conditions · Low confidence

7.7–7.8 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Strong wind: 17.3 kt · onshore

Cautions

Strong wind or gusts up to 38.1 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.
Strong wind or gusts up to 36.9 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.

Forecast details

This is the best time in the forecast, though wind may make it choppy.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

2:00 PM–4:00 PM · Pacific/Auckland
Strong wind · up to 17.9 kt · reported gusts up to 38.5 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. Strong wind remains in the selected evidence.
Offshore waves: 7.8–7.9 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 4.3 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 0 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind S 17.9 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellS 4.6 ft @ 8sValid 2026-09-23 12:00 · Pacific/AucklandMarine grid -41.2917, 174.7917 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea7.7 ft @ 8.1sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 12:00 · Pacific/Auckland

Model windS 17.9 ktonshoreValid 2026-09-23 12:00 · Pacific/Auckland17.9 kt onshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Lyall Bay
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	NNW 7.5 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 2.4 ft @ 8s
1 AM	NW 3.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 2.4 ft @ 8s
2 AM	SSW 19.1 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 2.4 ft @ 9s
3 AM	S 21.4 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 10s
4 AM	S 19.8 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.7 ft @ 10s
5 AM	S 19.1 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 3.0 ft @ 10s
6 AM	S 17.8 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 3.3 ft @ 10s
7 AM	S 17 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 3.4 ft @ 9s
8 AM	S 18.1 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 3.6 ft @ 9s
9 AM	S 18.2 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 3.7 ft @ 8s
10 AM	S 17 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 4.0 ft @ 8s
11 AM	S 17.5 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 4.3 ft @ 8s
Noon	S 17.9 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 4.6 ft @ 8s
1 PM	S 17.9 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.0 ft @ 8s
2 PM	S 17.4 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.3 ft @ 9s
3 PM	S 17.9 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.7 ft @ 9s
4 PM	S 17.8 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.8 ft @ 9s
5 PM	S 17.3 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 5.9 ft @ 8s
6 PM	S 17.3 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 6.0 ft @ 8s
7 PM	S 17.5 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 6.0 ft @ 8s
8 PM	S 16.6 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 6.0 ft @ 8s
9 PM	S 16.4 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 6.0 ft @ 8s
10 PM	S 16.2 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 6.1 ft @ 8s
11 PM	S 15.8 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 6.2 ft @ 8s

12 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 7.5 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 2.4 ft @ 8s

1 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 2.4 ft @ 8s

2 AMUnavailable

WindSSW 19.1 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 2.4 ft @ 9s

3 AMUnavailable

WindS 21.4 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 10s

4 AMUnavailable

WindS 19.8 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.7 ft @ 10s

5 AMUnavailable

WindS 19.1 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 3.0 ft @ 10s

6 AMUnavailable

WindS 17.8 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 3.3 ft @ 10s

7 AMUnavailable

WindS 17 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 3.4 ft @ 9s

8 AMUnavailable

WindS 18.1 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 3.6 ft @ 9s

9 AMUnavailable

WindS 18.2 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 3.7 ft @ 8s

10 AMUnavailable

WindS 17 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 4.0 ft @ 8s

11 AMUnavailable

WindS 17.5 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 4.3 ft @ 8s

NoonUnavailable

WindS 17.9 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 4.6 ft @ 8s

1 PMUnavailable

WindS 17.9 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.0 ft @ 8s

2 PMUnavailable

WindS 17.4 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.3 ft @ 9s

3 PMUnavailable

WindS 17.9 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.7 ft @ 9s

4 PMUnavailable

WindS 17.8 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.8 ft @ 9s

5 PMUnavailable

WindS 17.3 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 5.9 ft @ 8s

6 PMUnavailable

WindS 17.3 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 6.0 ft @ 8s

7 PMUnavailable

WindS 17.5 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 6.0 ft @ 8s

8 PMUnavailable

WindS 16.6 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 6.0 ft @ 8s

9 PMUnavailable

WindS 16.4 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 6.0 ft @ 8s

10 PMUnavailable

WindS 16.2 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 6.1 ft @ 8s

11 PMUnavailable

WindS 15.8 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 6.2 ft @ 8s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach break. Published named-break coordinate; the source describes south swell and north offshore wind.

Mapped spot coordinate: -41.33, 174.8.

North Island · Cook Strait south-facing exposed Wellington beach coast · Ocean-facing bearing 180° · Location provenance

Model request point: Lyall Bay (-41.33, 174.8). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 2/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier B · NEW_ZEALAND · spot-level model point

MetService New Zealand Surf Forecasts
The checked MetService public marine/surf response exposes an HTML application shell but no stable named-spot payload, timestamp schema, units, or update contract; no forecast is scraped.UnavailableNo source time
New Zealand Regional Wave Buoy Pages
South Island Waves lists a Lyall Bay device identity, but its checked public list and device response returned no current observation. Wellington Harbour WRIBO and Tory East Head are not substituted for the open south coast.UnavailableNo source time
NIWA Tide Forecasting API
NIWA tide requests require an API key; no credential bypass is attempted and no station, datum, timezone, or current value is available.UnavailableNo source time
LINZ Tide Predictions and Sea-Level Data
LINZ is retained as an official tide-table reference, but no spot-specific station, distance, chart datum, timezone, and current response is connected.UnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.