Phillip Island · Thursday, Sep 24

Smiths Beach Phillip Island

Updated Wed, Sep 23, 10:10 AM GMT+10

When to go

Around 6:00 PM

Looks good · Low confidence

3.7–3.7 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 4.8 kt · cross-shore

Forecast details

Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

8:00 AM–10:00 AM · Australia/Melbourne
Moderate offshore wind · up to 6.7 kt · reported gusts up to 12.8 kt
Offshore waves: 4.1–4.2 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 23, 9:30 AM GMT+10. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 5.1 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 22 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind NNE 6.7 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellWSW 3.9 ft @ 11sValid 2026-09-24 08:00 · Australia/MelbourneMarine grid -38.5417, 145.2917 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea4.2 ft @ 12sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-24 08:00 · Australia/Melbourne

Model windNNE 6.7 ktoffshoreValid 2026-09-24 08:00 · Australia/Melbourne6.4 kt offshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Smiths Beach Phillip Island
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	NE 4.8 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.1 ft @ 10s
1 AM	NE 4.6 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.1 ft @ 10s
2 AM	NNE 5 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 3.9 ft @ 10s
3 AM	NNE 6.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 3.7 ft @ 10s
4 AM	NNE 6.9 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 3.6 ft @ 10s
5 AM	NNE 6.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 3.7 ft @ 10s
6 AM	NNE 6.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.7 ft @ 10s
7 AM	NNE 6.8 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.7 ft @ 11s
8 AM	NNE 6.7 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.9 ft @ 11s
9 AM	NNE 6.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.9 ft @ 10s
10 AM	N 6.5 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.1 ft @ 10s
11 AM	N 7.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 4.0 ft @ 10s
Noon	N 8.7 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 3.9 ft @ 10s
1 PM	NNW 9.4 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 3.9 ft @ 10s
2 PM	NNW 9.4 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	SW 3.8 ft @ 10s
3 PM	NNW 9.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.8 ft @ 10s
4 PM	NNW 7.6 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.7 ft @ 10s
5 PM	NNW 5.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.7 ft @ 10s
6 PM	NW 4.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.7 ft @ 10s
7 PM	WNW 3.5 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.6 ft @ 10s
8 PM	WSW 0.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.6 ft @ 10s
9 PM	NNE 2.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.6 ft @ 10s
10 PM	NNW 4.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.6 ft @ 10s
11 PM	NW 7.3 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	WSW 3.5 ft @ 10s

12 AMUnavailable

WindNE 4.8 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.1 ft @ 10s

1 AMUnavailable

WindNE 4.6 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.1 ft @ 10s

2 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 5 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 3.9 ft @ 10s

3 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 6.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 3.7 ft @ 10s

4 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 6.9 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 3.6 ft @ 10s

5 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 6.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 3.7 ft @ 10s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 6.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.7 ft @ 10s

7 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 6.8 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.7 ft @ 11s

8 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 6.7 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.9 ft @ 11s

9 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 6.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.9 ft @ 10s

10 AMUnavailable

WindN 6.5 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.1 ft @ 10s

11 AMUnavailable

WindN 7.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 4.0 ft @ 10s

NoonUnavailable

WindN 8.7 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 3.9 ft @ 10s

1 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 9.4 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 3.9 ft @ 10s

2 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 9.4 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSW 3.8 ft @ 10s

3 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 9.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.8 ft @ 10s

4 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 7.6 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.7 ft @ 10s

5 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 5.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.7 ft @ 10s

6 PMUnavailable

WindNW 4.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.7 ft @ 10s

7 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 3.5 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.6 ft @ 10s

8 PMUnavailable

WindWSW 0.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.6 ft @ 10s

9 PMUnavailable

WindNNE 2.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.6 ft @ 10s

10 PMUnavailable

WindNNW 4.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.6 ft @ 10s

11 PMUnavailable

WindNW 7.3 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellWSW 3.5 ft @ 10s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach and point break. Published named-break coordinate; fairly exposed beach and point with south swell and north offshore-wind exposure. This resolves the Woolamai-derived market fallback. BOM zone: Central Coast.

Mapped spot coordinate: -38.5069, 145.2541.

Phillip Island · Phillip Island south-facing fairly exposed beach and point coast · Ocean-facing bearing 180° · Location provenance

Model request point: Smiths Beach Phillip Island (-38.5069, 145.2541). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 2/5 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier C · AU_OTHER · spot-level model point

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Marine Forecasts/AUSWAVE
BOM publishes Central Coast waters from Cape Otway to Wilsons Promontory, but blocks application access; no forecast is scraped or presented as break-level surf.UnavailableNo source time
Australian Ocean Data Network / IMOS
No current Inverloch observation passed buoy identity, quality flag, value, timestamp, units, freshness, distance, and open-Bass-Strait exposure validation.UnavailableNo source time
WorldTides API
No tide prediction with verified station identity, distance, datum, timezone, and current response is connected; third-party nearby-tide references are not treated as station contracts.UnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 9:30 AM GMT+10
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 9:30 AM GMT+10
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.