Canadian Great Lakes · Wednesday, Sep 23

Port Stanley

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 8:10 PM EDT

When to go

Around 3:00 PM

Windy · Low confidence

3.1–3.1 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 13.6 kt · cross-shore

Forecast details

This is the best time in the forecast, though wind may make it choppy.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

8:00 AM–10:00 AM · America/Toronto
Strong wind · up to 10.8 kt · reported gusts up to 23.1 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. Strong wind remains in the selected evidence.
Offshore waves: 2.9–2.9 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 7:30 PM EDT. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 3.9 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 12 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind NE 10.8 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellESE 1.5 ft @ 4sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/TorontoMarine grid 42.6250, -81.2083 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea2.9 ft @ 4.0sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Toronto

Model windNE 10.8 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Toronto6.6 kt offshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

ECCC RDWPS Lake Erie · buoy 45132 model cell4.2–4.2 ft2026-09-23T18:00:00.000ZOfficial 1 km RDWPS significant combined wind-wave and swell height at the reviewed same-lake buoy coordinate; model forecast, not observed or breaking surfValid from Sep 22, 2:00 PM EDT

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Port Stanley
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	ENE 11.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.1 ft @ 5s
1 AM	ENE 11.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.1 ft @ 5s
2 AM	ENE 10.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.1 ft @ 5s
3 AM	NE 9.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.2 ft @ 5s
4 AM	NE 10.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.2 ft @ 5s
5 AM	NE 10.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.2 ft @ 5s
6 AM	NE 10.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.3 ft @ 4s
7 AM	NE 10.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.4 ft @ 4s
8 AM	NE 10.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.5 ft @ 4s
9 AM	NE 10.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.2 ft @ 4s
10 AM	ENE 10.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 0.9 ft @ 5s
11 AM	E 12.5 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 0.7 ft @ 5s
Noon	E 13.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 0.7 ft @ 5s
1 PM	E 14.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SE 0.7 ft @ 5s
2 PM	E 14.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SE 0.7 ft @ 5s
3 PM	E 13.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SE 0.8 ft @ 5s
4 PM	E 13.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 0.9 ft @ 5s
5 PM	E 12.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.1 ft @ 5s
6 PM	ENE 10.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.2 ft @ 4s
7 PM	NE 10.2 ktoffshore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.3 ft @ 4s
8 PM	NE 10.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.4 ft @ 4s
9 PM	NE 11.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.3 ft @ 4s
10 PM	ENE 11.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.1 ft @ 4s
11 PM	ENE 11 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	ESE 1.0 ft @ 5s

12 AMUnavailable

WindENE 11.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.1 ft @ 5s

1 AMUnavailable

WindENE 11.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.1 ft @ 5s

2 AMUnavailable

WindENE 10.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.1 ft @ 5s

3 AMUnavailable

WindNE 9.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.2 ft @ 5s

4 AMUnavailable

WindNE 10.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.2 ft @ 5s

5 AMUnavailable

WindNE 10.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.2 ft @ 5s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNE 10.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.3 ft @ 4s

7 AMUnavailable

WindNE 10.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.4 ft @ 4s

8 AMUnavailable

WindNE 10.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.5 ft @ 4s

9 AMUnavailable

WindNE 10.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.2 ft @ 4s

10 AMUnavailable

WindENE 10.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 0.9 ft @ 5s

11 AMUnavailable

WindE 12.5 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 0.7 ft @ 5s

NoonUnavailable

WindE 13.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 0.7 ft @ 5s

1 PMUnavailable

WindE 14.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSE 0.7 ft @ 5s

2 PMUnavailable

WindE 14.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSE 0.7 ft @ 5s

3 PMUnavailable

WindE 13.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSE 0.8 ft @ 5s

4 PMUnavailable

WindE 13.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 0.9 ft @ 5s

5 PMUnavailable

WindE 12.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.1 ft @ 5s

6 PMUnavailable

WindENE 10.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.2 ft @ 4s

7 PMUnavailable

WindNE 10.2 ktoffshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.3 ft @ 4s

8 PMUnavailable

WindNE 10.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.4 ft @ 4s

9 PMUnavailable

WindNE 11.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.3 ft @ 4s

10 PMUnavailable

WindENE 11.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.1 ft @ 4s

11 PMUnavailable

WindENE 11 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellESE 1.0 ft @ 5s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach break. Reviewed named public-beach identity; same-lake buoy and RDWPS evidence are not breaking surf.

Mapped spot coordinate: 42.65948, -81.2185.

Mainland · Lake Erie north shore · Ocean-facing bearing 180° · Location provenance

Model request point: Port Stanley (42.65948, -81.2185). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 3/5 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier B · CANADA · spot-level model point

ECCC RDWPS Lake Erie · buoy 45132 model cell
ECCC RDWPS Lake Erie · buoy 45132 model cell; Official 1 km RDWPS significant combined wind-wave and swell height at the reviewed same-lake buoy coordinate; model forecast, not observed or breaking surfCurrentSep 22, 2:00 PM EDT
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Wave Data
No ECCC 45149, 45159, or 45132 observation passed exact station identity, coordinate, metre/second unit, value, and three-hour freshness validation for its assigned lake exposure.UnavailableNo source time
Canadian Hydrographic Service IWLS API
Validated CHS IWLS wlo/wlf values are water-level observations and forecasts in metres above chart datum, not tides. BaseReportData has no water-level field; spotTides only accepts high/low tide predictions with a supported tide datum, so these values are withheld rather than mislabeled.UnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:30 PM EDT
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:30 PM EDT
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.