Christchurch Coast · Right now

Taylors Mistake

Updated Wed, Sep 23, 12:30 PM GMT+12

When to go

Around 3:00 PM

Strong wind — difficult conditions · Low confidence

1.3–1.3 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Strong wind: 11.3 kt · cross-shore

Cautions

Strong wind or gusts up to 27.6 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.

Forecast details

This is the best time in the forecast, though wind may make it choppy.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

1:00 PM–3:00 PM · Pacific/Auckland
Strong wind · up to 12.4 kt · reported gusts up to 28.0 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. Strong wind remains in the selected evidence.
Offshore waves: 1.3–1.4 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 8.8 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 0 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind SSW 12.4 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellSE 0.5 ft @ 4sValid 2026-09-23 13:00 · Pacific/AucklandMarine grid -43.5417, 172.8750 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea1.4 ft @ 3.6sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 13:00 · Pacific/Auckland

Model windSSW 12.4 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-23 13:00 · Pacific/Auckland6.0 kt offshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Taylors Mistake
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
Noon	SSW 12.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SE 0.5 ft @ 4s
1 PM	SSW 12.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SE 0.5 ft @ 4s
2 PM	SSW 12 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SE 0.5 ft @ 5s
3 PM	SSW 11.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SE 0.5 ft @ 5s

NoonUnavailable

WindSSW 12.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSE 0.5 ft @ 4s

1 PMUnavailable

WindSSW 12.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSE 0.5 ft @ 4s

2 PMUnavailable

WindSSW 12 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSE 0.5 ft @ 5s

3 PMUnavailable

WindSSW 11.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSE 0.5 ft @ 5s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach break. Published named-break coordinate; the source describes ENE swell and west offshore wind.

Mapped spot coordinate: -43.58, 172.78.

South Island · Banks Peninsula east-facing exposed beach coast at Taylors Mistake Bay · Ocean-facing bearing 90° · Location provenance

Model request point: Taylors Mistake (-43.58, 172.78). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 2/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier B · NEW_ZEALAND · spot-level model point

MetService New Zealand Surf Forecasts
The checked MetService public marine/surf response exposes an HTML application shell but no stable named-spot payload, timestamp schema, units, or update contract; no forecast is scraped.UnavailableNo source time
New Zealand Regional Wave Buoy Pages
Environment Canterbury documents its Banks Peninsula buoy identity, units, three-hour transmission cadence, and 76 m depth, but the direct anonymous response available to the product is a 212-byte Incapsula challenge. South Island Waves returned an empty public list and no observations, so no buoy value is connected.UnavailableNo source time
NIWA Tide Forecasting API
NIWA tide requests require an API key; no credential bypass is attempted and no station, datum, timezone, or current value is available.UnavailableNo source time
LINZ Tide Predictions and Sea-Level Data
LINZ is retained as an official tide-table reference, but no spot-specific station, distance, chart datum, timezone, and current response is connected.UnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.