Gisborne and Hawkes Bay · Thursday, Sep 24

Mahia

Updated Wed, Sep 23, 12:30 PM GMT+12

When to go

Around 6:00 PM

Looks good · Low confidence

6.0–6.0 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 6.0 kt · cross-shore

Forecast details

Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

3:00 PM–5:00 PM · Pacific/Auckland
Strong wind · up to 12.3 kt · reported gusts up to 26.0 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. Strong wind remains in the selected evidence.
Offshore waves: 6.1–6.4 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 4.7 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 19 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind SW 13.6 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellS 5.7 ft @ 7sValid 2026-09-24 08:00 · Pacific/AucklandMarine grid -39.1250, 177.8750 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea7.3 ft @ 8.1sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-24 08:00 · Pacific/Auckland

Model windSW 13.6 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-24 08:00 · Pacific/Auckland2.7 kt onshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableNo verified local tide station connected; no tide height estimated

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Mahia
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	SSW 11.2 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.8 ft @ 7s
1 AM	SW 11.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.8 ft @ 7s
2 AM	SSW 14.9 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.9 ft @ 8s
3 AM	SSW 14.9 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.9 ft @ 8s
4 AM	SSW 15.2 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.8 ft @ 8s
5 AM	SSW 13.7 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.6 ft @ 7s
6 AM	SW 13.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.5 ft @ 7s
7 AM	SW 11.2 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.6 ft @ 7s
8 AM	SW 13.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.7 ft @ 7s
9 AM	SW 14.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.8 ft @ 7s
10 AM	SW 13.9 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.8 ft @ 8s
11 AM	SW 14.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.7 ft @ 8s
Noon	SW 13.5 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.6 ft @ 8s
1 PM	SW 13 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.6 ft @ 8s
2 PM	SW 12.9 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.6 ft @ 8s
3 PM	SW 12.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.6 ft @ 8s
4 PM	SW 11 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.5 ft @ 8s
5 PM	SW 9.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.4 ft @ 8s
6 PM	SW 6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.4 ft @ 8s
7 PM	WSW 3.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.2 ft @ 7s
8 PM	W 3.3 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.1 ft @ 7s
9 PM	NW 3.2 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.0 ft @ 7s
10 PM	NW 3.2 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 5.0 ft @ 7s
11 PM	WNW 3.3 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	S 4.9 ft @ 7s

12 AMUnavailable

WindSSW 11.2 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.8 ft @ 7s

1 AMUnavailable

WindSW 11.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.8 ft @ 7s

2 AMUnavailable

WindSSW 14.9 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.9 ft @ 8s

3 AMUnavailable

WindSSW 14.9 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.9 ft @ 8s

4 AMUnavailable

WindSSW 15.2 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.8 ft @ 8s

5 AMUnavailable

WindSSW 13.7 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.6 ft @ 7s

6 AMUnavailable

WindSW 13.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.5 ft @ 7s

7 AMUnavailable

WindSW 11.2 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.6 ft @ 7s

8 AMUnavailable

WindSW 13.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.7 ft @ 7s

9 AMUnavailable

WindSW 14.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.8 ft @ 7s

10 AMUnavailable

WindSW 13.9 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.8 ft @ 8s

11 AMUnavailable

WindSW 14.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.7 ft @ 8s

NoonUnavailable

WindSW 13.5 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.6 ft @ 8s

1 PMUnavailable

WindSW 13 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.6 ft @ 8s

2 PMUnavailable

WindSW 12.9 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.6 ft @ 8s

3 PMUnavailable

WindSW 12.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.6 ft @ 8s

4 PMUnavailable

WindSW 11 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.5 ft @ 8s

5 PMUnavailable

WindSW 9.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.4 ft @ 8s

6 PMUnavailable

WindSW 6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.4 ft @ 8s

7 PMUnavailable

WindWSW 3.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.2 ft @ 7s

8 PMUnavailable

WindW 3.3 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.1 ft @ 7s

9 PMUnavailable

WindNW 3.2 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.0 ft @ 7s

10 PMUnavailable

WindNW 3.2 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 5.0 ft @ 7s

11 PMUnavailable

WindWNW 3.3 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellS 4.9 ft @ 7s

Tide

Local tide station unavailable

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Reef break. Named reef coordinate and published west-northwest exposure on the Mahia Peninsula's Hawke Bay side.

Mapped spot coordinate: -39.0858, 177.8561.

North Island · Hawke Bay · Ocean-facing bearing 292.5° · Location provenance

Model request point: Mahia (-39.0858, 177.8561). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 2/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier B · NEW_ZEALAND · spot-level model point

MetService New Zealand Surf Forecasts
Surf-oriented wind, swell, wave height, quality, SST, and tide display; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
New Zealand Regional Wave Buoy Pages
Measured wave height, direction, and period; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
NIWA Tide Forecasting API
Tide predictions and charts; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
LINZ Tide Predictions and Sea-Level Data
Official tide predictions and observed sea level; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 23, 11:45 AM GMT+12
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.