North and Northwest Coast · Wednesday, Sep 23

Aviones

NWS San Juan · PRZ001; official reef-face range: 3–3 ft

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 8:30 PM AST

When to go

7:00 AM–8:00 AM

Looks good · Low confidence

1.8–1.8 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 3.2 kt · direction unavailable

Forecast details

Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

7:00 AM–9:00 AM · America/Puerto_Rico
Unfavorable wind · up to 6.7 kt · reported gusts up to 8.6 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. The selected wind is unfavorable for this break.
Offshore waves: 1.8–2.0 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 7:45 PM AST. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 10.2 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 11 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind SE 3.2 kt

Tide 1 ft falling

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 11sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Puerto_RicoMarine grid 18.5417, -65.9583 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea1.8 ft @ 8.6sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Puerto_Rico

Model windSE 3.2 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Puerto_Rico1.8 kt offshore component

Tide1 ftfallingNOAA San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay 9755371 · 16.5 km from Aviones · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 8:30 PM AST · provider issue time unavailable65% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

NWS San Juan · PRZ001

Rip Current Risk*...........Low. Surf Height.................Around 3 feet. Weather.....................Mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Winds.......................East winds 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAYOfficial breaking-surf height for San Juan and Vicinity PR; forecast-zone range, not a calibrated break transformationIssued Sep 22, 3:43 AM AST

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Aviones
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	ESE 5.7 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	NE 1.1 ft @ 6s
1 AM	ESE 5.8 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	NE 1.1 ft @ 6s
2 AM	ESE 5.4 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	NE 1.1 ft @ 6s
3 AM	ESE 5.1 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	NE 1.0 ft @ 8s
4 AM	SE 4.3 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	NE 1.0 ft @ 10s
5 AM	SE 3.8 ktoffshore	1 ftrising	NNE 0.9 ft @ 11s
6 AM	SE 3.3 ktoffshore	1 ftfalling	NNE 1.0 ft @ 12s
7 AM	SSE 3.2 ktoffshore	1 ftfalling	NNE 1.0 ft @ 11s
8 AM	SE 3.2 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	NNE 1.1 ft @ 11s
9 AM	E 6.7 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	NNE 1.1 ft @ 11s
10 AM	ENE 9.6 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	NNE 1.1 ft @ 11s
11 AM	E 11.8 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	NNE 1.2 ft @ 11s
Noon	E 8.1 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftnear low	NNE 1.1 ft @ 11s
1 PM	E 9.4 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	NNE 1.1 ft @ 10s
2 PM	ENE 12.4 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	NNE 1.1 ft @ 9s
3 PM	E 13.3 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	NNE 1.1 ft @ 9s
4 PM	E 12.3 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	NNE 1.1 ft @ 9s
5 PM	E 10.2 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftrising	NNE 1.1 ft @ 9s
6 PM	E 8.5 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftrising	NNE 1.2 ft @ 9s
7 PM	ESE 5.8 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	NNE 1.4 ft @ 10s
8 PM	ESE 5 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	NNE 1.6 ft @ 11s
9 PM	SE 4.9 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	NNE 1.6 ft @ 11s
10 PM	SE 4.8 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	NNE 1.6 ft @ 11s
11 PM	SE 4.4 ktoffshore	1 ftfalling	NNE 1.6 ft @ 11s

12 AMUnavailable

WindESE 5.7 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNE 1.1 ft @ 6s

1 AMUnavailable

WindESE 5.8 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNE 1.1 ft @ 6s

2 AMUnavailable

WindESE 5.4 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNE 1.1 ft @ 6s

3 AMUnavailable

WindESE 5.1 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNE 1.0 ft @ 8s

4 AMUnavailable

WindSE 4.3 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNE 1.0 ft @ 10s

5 AMUnavailable

WindSE 3.8 ktoffshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 0.9 ft @ 11s

6 AMUnavailable

WindSE 3.3 ktoffshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.0 ft @ 12s

7 AMUnavailable

WindSSE 3.2 ktoffshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.0 ft @ 11s

8 AMUnavailable

WindSE 3.2 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 11s

9 AMUnavailable

WindE 6.7 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 11s

10 AMUnavailable

WindENE 9.6 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 11s

11 AMUnavailable

WindE 11.8 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.2 ft @ 11s

NoonUnavailable

WindE 8.1 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftnear lowOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 11s

1 PMUnavailable

WindE 9.4 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 10s

2 PMUnavailable

WindENE 12.4 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 9s

3 PMUnavailable

WindE 13.3 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 9s

4 PMUnavailable

WindE 12.3 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 9s

5 PMUnavailable

WindE 10.2 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 9s

6 PMUnavailable

WindE 8.5 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 1.2 ft @ 9s

7 PMUnavailable

WindESE 5.8 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.4 ft @ 10s

8 PMUnavailable

WindESE 5 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.6 ft @ 11s

9 PMUnavailable

WindSE 4.9 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.6 ft @ 11s

10 PMUnavailable

WindSE 4.8 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.6 ft @ 11s

11 PMUnavailable

WindSE 4.4 ktoffshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 1.6 ft @ 11s

Tide

NOAA San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay 9755371 · 16.5 km from Aviones · MLLW

Interpolated tide height Recommended window

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Reef break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 18.45, -65.96.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 0° · Location provenance

Model request point: Aviones (18.45, -65.96). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 4/5 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A+ · US_PR_VI · spot-level model point

NWS San Juan · PRZ001; official reef-face range3–3 ftCurrent · Sep 22, 3:43 AM AST

NWS San Juan · PRZ001
NWS San Juan · PRZ001; Official breaking-surf height for San Juan and Vicinity PR; forecast-zone range, not a calibrated break transformationCurrentSep 22, 3:43 AM AST
CARICOOS ERDDAP
No current individually assigned CARICOOS observation covers this spot.UnavailableNo source time
NOAA NDBC real-time station files
Current buoy observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableNo source time
NOAA CO-OPS Tides and Currents API
NOAA San Juan, La Puntilla, San Juan Bay 9755371 · 16.5 km from Aviones; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.CurrentSep 22, 8:30 PM AST
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:45 PM AST
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:45 PM AST
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.