Hawaii Island · Wednesday, Sep 23

Magic Sands

Big Island shore forecast; official shore-facing range: 2–4 ft

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 2:20 PM HST

When to go

8:00 AM–10:00 AM

Looks good · Moderate confidence

2–4 ft · Official surf · whole shore and forecast period · Big Island shore forecast; official shore-facing range

Wind: 4.6 kt · direction unavailable

Forecast details

The official forecast calls for surf along this coast.
Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

4:00 PM–6:00 PM · Pacific/Honolulu
Light wind · up to 4.1 kt · reported gusts up to 14.8 kt
Offshore waves: 2.6–2.6 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data unavailable.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 1:45 PM HST. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 4.5 km from the mapped spot. MFWAM is approximately 8 km resolution.
Reference model hour: 18 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
Tide unavailable: assessment incomplete, especially at shallow reef breaks.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind WNW 1.6 kt

Tide Unavailable

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · Pacific/HonoluluMarine grid 19.6250, -155.9583 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea2.6 ft @ 11.7sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · Pacific/Honolulu

Model windWNW 1.6 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · Pacific/Honolulu0.9 kt onshore component

TideUnavailableunavailableKailua Kona station 1617846 · predicted height relative to MLLW

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Magic Sands
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	SSE 0.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
1 AM	NNW 0.2 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
2 AM	NW 0.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
3 AM	N 0.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
4 AM	N 0.5 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
5 AM	NNE 1.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
6 AM	NNE 2.2 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
7 AM	NNE 2.4 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
8 AM	WNW 1.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
9 AM	SW 4.6 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.4 ft @ 11s
10 AM	SW 4.6 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.3 ft @ 11s
11 AM	SSW 4.6 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.3 ft @ 11s
Noon	SW 4.9 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.3 ft @ 11s
1 PM	SW 2.4 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.3 ft @ 11s
2 PM	SW 4.1 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.3 ft @ 11s
3 PM	SW 4.8 ktonshore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 11s
4 PM	SSW 4.1 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 10s
5 PM	SSE 2.8 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 10s
6 PM	SE 3.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 10s
7 PM	SE 2.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 10s
8 PM	SSE 1.6 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 10s
9 PM	SE 2.5 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 10s
10 PM	SE 3.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 10s
11 PM	SE 3.3 ktcross-shore	Unavailableunavailable	SSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

12 AMUnavailable

WindSSE 0.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

1 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 0.2 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

2 AMUnavailable

WindNW 0.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

3 AMUnavailable

WindN 0.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

4 AMUnavailable

WindN 0.5 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

5 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 1.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 2.2 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

7 AMUnavailable

WindNNE 2.4 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

8 AMUnavailable

WindWNW 1.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

9 AMUnavailable

WindSW 4.6 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.4 ft @ 11s

10 AMUnavailable

WindSW 4.6 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.3 ft @ 11s

11 AMUnavailable

WindSSW 4.6 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.3 ft @ 11s

NoonUnavailable

WindSW 4.9 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.3 ft @ 11s

1 PMUnavailable

WindSW 2.4 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.3 ft @ 11s

2 PMUnavailable

WindSW 4.1 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.3 ft @ 11s

3 PMUnavailable

WindSW 4.8 ktonshoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 11s

4 PMUnavailable

WindSSW 4.1 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

5 PMUnavailable

WindSSE 2.8 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

6 PMUnavailable

WindSE 3.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

7 PMUnavailable

WindSE 2.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

8 PMUnavailable

WindSSE 1.6 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

9 PMUnavailable

WindSE 2.5 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

10 PMUnavailable

WindSE 3.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

11 PMUnavailable

WindSE 3.3 ktcross-shoreTideUnavailableunavailableOffshore swellSSW 2.2 ft @ 10s

Tide

Kailua Kona station 1617846 · MLLW

Tide predictions are unavailable for this period.

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Reef break. Named break coordinate; source describes east-northeast offshore wind and west-southwest ideal swell, supporting a west-southwest-facing shore assignment.

Mapped spot coordinate: 19.5905, -155.9809.

Hawaii Island · west · Ocean-facing bearing 247.5° · Location provenance

Model request point: Magic Sands (19.5905, -155.9809). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 3/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A+ · US_HAWAII · spot-level model point

Big Island shore forecast; official shore-facing range2–4 ftCurrent · Sep 22, 8:56 AM HST

US National Weather Service Surf Zone Forecast
Big Island shore forecast; official breaking-surf rangeCurrentSep 22, 8:56 AM HST
NWS Honolulu Surf Observations
Current human surf observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableSep 21, 11:13 AM HST
PacIOOS ERDDAP
Wave buoy observations and regional ocean datasets; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
Local wave observation
Current buoy observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableNo source time
Coastal Data Information Program THREDDS
No exact named CDIP mapping is available.UnavailableNo source time
Kailua Kona station 1617846
West-coast Kailua Kona tide context 6.2 km away; east-coast Hilo buoy withheld.UnavailableNo source time
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 1:45 PM HST
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 1:45 PM HST
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.