Long Island and New York City · Wednesday, Sep 23

Ditch Plains

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 8:30 PM EDT

When to go

8:00 AM–10:00 AM

Strong wind — difficult conditions · Low confidence

8.6–8.9 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Strong wind: 22.5 kt · cross-shore

Cautions

Strong wind or gusts up to 29.9 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.
Large waves are forecast. Choose conditions that suit your experience.
Strong wind or gusts up to 31.1 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.
Strong wind or gusts up to 31.7 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.

Forecast details

This is the best time in the forecast, though wind may make it choppy.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

7:00 AM–9:00 AM · America/New_York
Strong wind · up to 22.0 kt · reported gusts up to 31.1 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. Strong wind remains in the selected evidence.
Offshore waves: 8.2–8.7 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 7:45 PM EDT. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 2.1 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 11 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind NE 21 kt

Tide 2 ft falling

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellSE 2.4 ft @ 7sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/New_YorkMarine grid 41.0417, -71.8750 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea8.6 ft @ 6.5sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/New_York

Model windNE 21 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/New_York1.8 kt onshore component

Tide2 ftfallingMontauk station 8510560 · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 8:36 PM EDT · provider issue time unavailable91% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Ditch Plains
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	NE 19.5 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ESE 3.7 ft @ 6s
1 AM	NE 19.5 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftnear low	ESE 3.8 ft @ 7s
2 AM	NE 20.5 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	ESE 3.8 ft @ 7s
3 AM	NE 21.2 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	ESE 3.7 ft @ 7s
4 AM	NE 21.6 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	ESE 3.6 ft @ 7s
5 AM	NE 21.7 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftrising	ESE 3.5 ft @ 7s
6 AM	NE 21.6 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftrising	SE 3.1 ft @ 7s
7 AM	NE 21.3 ktcross-shore	2 ftnear high	SE 2.8 ft @ 7s
8 AM	NE 21 ktcross-shore	2 ftfalling	SE 2.4 ft @ 7s
9 AM	NE 22 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	SE 3.0 ft @ 7s
10 AM	NE 22.5 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	SE 3.7 ft @ 7s
11 AM	NE 22.5 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	ESE 4.4 ft @ 8s
Noon	NE 23 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ESE 4.6 ft @ 8s
1 PM	NE 23.5 ktcross-shore	1 ftnear low	ESE 4.7 ft @ 8s
2 PM	NE 23.1 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	ESE 4.9 ft @ 8s
3 PM	NE 22.5 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	ESE 5.1 ft @ 8s
4 PM	NE 23.3 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftrising	ESE 5.2 ft @ 8s
5 PM	NE 23.3 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftrising	ESE 5.4 ft @ 8s
6 PM	NE 23.7 ktcross-shore	2 ftrising	ESE 5.6 ft @ 8s
7 PM	NE 23.2 ktcross-shore	2 ftrising	ESE 5.7 ft @ 8s
8 PM	NE 22.3 ktcross-shore	2.5 ftfalling	ESE 5.8 ft @ 8s
9 PM	NE 23.1 ktcross-shore	2 ftfalling	ESE 5.8 ft @ 8s
10 PM	NE 22.8 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	ESE 5.9 ft @ 8s
11 PM	NE 21.9 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	ESE 5.9 ft @ 8s

12 AMUnavailable

WindNE 19.5 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 3.7 ft @ 6s

1 AMUnavailable

WindNE 19.5 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftnear lowOffshore swellESE 3.8 ft @ 7s

2 AMUnavailable

WindNE 20.5 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 3.8 ft @ 7s

3 AMUnavailable

WindNE 21.2 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 3.7 ft @ 7s

4 AMUnavailable

WindNE 21.6 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 3.6 ft @ 7s

5 AMUnavailable

WindNE 21.7 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 3.5 ft @ 7s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNE 21.6 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellSE 3.1 ft @ 7s

7 AMUnavailable

WindNE 21.3 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftnear highOffshore swellSE 2.8 ft @ 7s

8 AMUnavailable

WindNE 21 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftfallingOffshore swellSE 2.4 ft @ 7s

9 AMUnavailable

WindNE 22 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellSE 3.0 ft @ 7s

10 AMUnavailable

WindNE 22.5 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellSE 3.7 ft @ 7s

11 AMUnavailable

WindNE 22.5 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 4.4 ft @ 8s

NoonUnavailable

WindNE 23 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 4.6 ft @ 8s

1 PMUnavailable

WindNE 23.5 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftnear lowOffshore swellESE 4.7 ft @ 8s

2 PMUnavailable

WindNE 23.1 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 4.9 ft @ 8s

3 PMUnavailable

WindNE 22.5 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 5.1 ft @ 8s

4 PMUnavailable

WindNE 23.3 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 5.2 ft @ 8s

5 PMUnavailable

WindNE 23.3 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 5.4 ft @ 8s

6 PMUnavailable

WindNE 23.7 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 5.6 ft @ 8s

7 PMUnavailable

WindNE 23.2 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 5.7 ft @ 8s

8 PMUnavailable

WindNE 22.3 ktcross-shoreTide2.5 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 5.8 ft @ 8s

9 PMUnavailable

WindNE 23.1 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 5.8 ft @ 8s

10 PMUnavailable

WindNE 22.8 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 5.9 ft @ 8s

11 PMUnavailable

WindNE 21.9 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 5.9 ft @ 8s

Tide

Montauk station 8510560 · MLLW

Interpolated tide height Recommended window

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Reef break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 41.04, -71.9.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 135° · Location provenance

Model request point: Ditch Plains (41.04, -71.9). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 3/4 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A · US_EAST · spot-level model point

Official breaking-surf report not connected for Long Island and New York CityUnavailableUnavailable · Unavailable

US National Weather Service Surf Zone Forecast
No current NWS surf-zone period passed the explicit per-spot forecast-zone assignment.UnavailableNo source time
NOAA NDBC real-time station files
Current buoy observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableNo source time
NOAA CO-OPS Tides and Currents API
Montauk station 8510560; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.CurrentSep 22, 8:36 PM EDT
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:45 PM EDT
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:45 PM EDT
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.