Northeast Florida · Wednesday, Sep 23

Flagler Beach

NWS JAX · FLZ124-125-138-233-333; official reef-face range: 2–3 ft

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 8:20 PM EDT

When to go

Around 9:00 AM

Looks good · Low confidence

0.7–0.7 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 4.4 kt · cross-shore

Forecast details

Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

8:00 AM–10:00 AM · America/New_York
Unfavorable wind · up to 9.4 kt · reported gusts up to 12.8 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. The selected wind is unfavorable for this break.
Offshore waves: 0.7–0.7 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 7:30 PM EDT. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 8.9 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 12 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind NW 4.6 kt

Tide 0.5 ft rising

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellENE 0.6 ft @ 5sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/New_YorkMarine grid 29.4583, -81.0417 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea0.7 ft @ 6.7sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/New_York

Model windNW 4.6 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/New_York0.7 kt onshore component

Tide0.5 ftrisingNOAA SMITH CREEK, FLAGLER BEACH 8720833 · 0.7 km from Flagler Beach · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 8:27 PM EDT · provider issue time unavailable42% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

NWS JAX · FLZ124-125-138-233-333

Rip Current Risk*...........Moderate. Surf Height.................2 to 3 feet. Thunderstorm Potential**....Moderate. Weather.....................Partly sunny. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. High Temperature............In the mid 80s. Winds.......................North winds 10 to 15 mph. Tides... Vilano Beach.............High 06:37 AM EDT. Low 12:35 PM EDT. St Augustine Beach.......High 06:17 AM EDT. Low 12:17 PM EDT. Fernandina Beach.........High 06:46 AM EDT. Low 12:42 PM EDT. Mayport Naval Station....High 06:32 AM EDT. Low 12:16 PM EDT. Jacksonville Beach.......High 06:23 AM EDT. Low 12:33 PM EDT.

WEDNESDAYOfficial breaking-surf height for Nassau-Duval-Flagler-St. Johns; forecast-zone range, not a calibrated break transformationIssued Sep 22, 5:00 PM EDT

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Flagler Beach
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	E 5.7 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ENE 0.7 ft @ 6s
1 AM	ESE 4.6 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ENE 0.7 ft @ 6s
2 AM	ESE 2.1 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	ENE 0.7 ft @ 6s
3 AM	N 1.6 ktonshore	0.5 ftfalling	ENE 0.7 ft @ 6s
4 AM	NW 2.4 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	ENE 0.7 ft @ 6s
5 AM	NW 3 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftnear low	ENE 0.7 ft @ 6s
6 AM	NW 3.3 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	ENE 0.7 ft @ 6s
7 AM	NW 3.9 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	ENE 0.6 ft @ 6s
8 AM	NW 4.6 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	ENE 0.6 ft @ 5s
9 AM	NW 4.4 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	ENE 0.6 ft @ 6s
10 AM	NNW 9.4 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	ENE 0.6 ft @ 6s
11 AM	N 8.8 ktonshore	1 ftnear high	ENE 0.6 ft @ 6s
Noon	NE 11.1 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	ENE 0.6 ft @ 5s
1 PM	NNE 12.3 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	NE 0.7 ft @ 3s
2 PM	NNE 10.4 ktonshore	0.5 ftfalling	NNE 0.7 ft @ 2s
3 PM	NNE 13.7 ktonshore	0.5 ftfalling	NNE 0.7 ft @ 2s
4 PM	N 13.4 ktonshore	0.5 ftfalling	NNE 0.7 ft @ 2s
5 PM	N 14.4 ktonshore	0.5 ftfalling	NNE 0.7 ft @ 3s
6 PM	NE 19.3 ktonshore	0.5 ftrising	NNE 0.7 ft @ 3s
7 PM	NE 11.4 ktonshore	0.5 ftrising	NNE 0.6 ft @ 3s
8 PM	NE 16.6 ktonshore	0.5 ftrising	NNE 0.6 ft @ 3s
9 PM	NNE 14.3 ktonshore	0.5 ftrising	NNE 0.7 ft @ 3s
10 PM	NNE 15.2 ktonshore	1 ftrising	NNE 0.9 ft @ 3s
11 PM	NNE 15.4 ktonshore	1 ftrising	NNE 1.1 ft @ 3s

12 AMUnavailable

WindE 5.7 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 0.7 ft @ 6s

1 AMUnavailable

WindESE 4.6 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 0.7 ft @ 6s

2 AMUnavailable

WindESE 2.1 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 0.7 ft @ 6s

3 AMUnavailable

WindN 1.6 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 0.7 ft @ 6s

4 AMUnavailable

WindNW 2.4 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 0.7 ft @ 6s

5 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftnear lowOffshore swellENE 0.7 ft @ 6s

6 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3.3 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellENE 0.7 ft @ 6s

7 AMUnavailable

WindNW 3.9 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellENE 0.6 ft @ 6s

8 AMUnavailable

WindNW 4.6 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellENE 0.6 ft @ 5s

9 AMUnavailable

WindNW 4.4 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellENE 0.6 ft @ 6s

10 AMUnavailable

WindNNW 9.4 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellENE 0.6 ft @ 6s

11 AMUnavailable

WindN 8.8 ktonshoreTide1 ftnear highOffshore swellENE 0.6 ft @ 6s

NoonUnavailable

WindNE 11.1 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 0.6 ft @ 5s

1 PMUnavailable

WindNNE 12.3 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNE 0.7 ft @ 3s

2 PMUnavailable

WindNNE 10.4 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 0.7 ft @ 2s

3 PMUnavailable

WindNNE 13.7 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 0.7 ft @ 2s

4 PMUnavailable

WindN 13.4 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 0.7 ft @ 2s

5 PMUnavailable

WindN 14.4 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellNNE 0.7 ft @ 3s

6 PMUnavailable

WindNE 19.3 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 0.7 ft @ 3s

7 PMUnavailable

WindNE 11.4 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 0.6 ft @ 3s

8 PMUnavailable

WindNE 16.6 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 0.6 ft @ 3s

9 PMUnavailable

WindNNE 14.3 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 0.7 ft @ 3s

10 PMUnavailable

WindNNE 15.2 ktonshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 0.9 ft @ 3s

11 PMUnavailable

WindNNE 15.4 ktonshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellNNE 1.1 ft @ 3s

Tide

NOAA SMITH CREEK, FLAGLER BEACH 8720833 · 0.7 km from Flagler Beach · MLLW

Interpolated tide height Recommended window

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 29.48, -81.13.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 45° · Location provenance

Model request point: Flagler Beach (29.48, -81.13). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 4/4 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A · US_EAST · spot-level model point

NWS JAX · FLZ124-125-138-233-333; official reef-face range2–3 ftCurrent · Sep 22, 5:00 PM EDT

NWS JAX · FLZ124-125-138-233-333
NWS JAX · FLZ124-125-138-233-333; Official breaking-surf height for Nassau-Duval-Flagler-St. Johns; forecast-zone range, not a calibrated break transformationCurrentSep 22, 5:00 PM EDT
NOAA NDBC real-time station files
Current buoy observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableNo source time
NOAA CO-OPS Tides and Currents API
NOAA SMITH CREEK, FLAGLER BEACH 8720833 · 0.7 km from Flagler Beach; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.CurrentSep 22, 8:27 PM EDT
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:30 PM EDT
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:30 PM EDT
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.