Santa Cruz and Monterey Bay · Right now

Asilomar

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 5:30 PM PDT

When to go

Around 7:00 PM

Looks good · Low confidence

6.9–6.9 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 5.4 kt · onshore

Forecast details

Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

At 6:00 PM · America/Los_Angeles
Unfavorable wind · up to 6.3 kt · reported gusts up to 8.7 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. The selected wind is unfavorable for this break.
Offshore waves: 6.8–6.8 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 4:45 PM PDT. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 1.7 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 0 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind NW 6.3 kt

Tide 4 ft rising

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellWNW 5.0 ft @ 6sValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Los_AngelesMarine grid 36.6250, -121.9583 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea6.8 ft @ 9.3sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Los_Angeles

Model windNW 6.3 ktonshoreValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Los_Angeles6.3 kt onshore component

Tide4 ftrisingNOAA Monterey 9413450 · 4.9 km from Asilomar · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 5:35 PM PDT · provider issue time unavailable62% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

Monterey Canyon Outer, CA (156) buoy 46236 · 14 km from Asilomar5.2 ft @ 13sNDBC significant wave height (Hs) from a buoy in this spot’s checked seaward hemisphere; not breaking-wave face heightObserved Sep 22, 5:00 PM PDT

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Asilomar
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
5 PM	NW 6.3 ktonshore	3.5 ftrising	WNW 4.9 ft @ 6s
6 PM	NW 6.3 ktonshore	4 ftrising	WNW 5.0 ft @ 6s
7 PM	NW 5.4 ktonshore	4.5 ftrising	WNW 5.0 ft @ 6s
8 PM	NW 7.3 ktonshore	5 ftnear high	WNW 5.1 ft @ 6s

5 PMUnavailable

WindNW 6.3 ktonshoreTide3.5 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 4.9 ft @ 6s

6 PMUnavailable

WindNW 6.3 ktonshoreTide4 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 5.0 ft @ 6s

7 PMUnavailable

WindNW 5.4 ktonshoreTide4.5 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 5.0 ft @ 6s

8 PMUnavailable

WindNW 7.3 ktonshoreTide5 ftnear highOffshore swellWNW 5.1 ft @ 6s

Tide

NOAA Monterey 9413450 · 4.9 km from Asilomar · MLLW

Interpolated tide height Recommended window

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach and reef break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 36.63, -121.94.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 315° · Location provenance

Model request point: Asilomar (36.63, -121.94). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 4/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A · US_CA · spot-level model point

Official breaking-surf report not connected for Santa Cruz and Monterey BayUnavailableUnavailable · Unavailable

US National Weather Service Surf Zone Forecast
No current identified MTR/LOX surf product passed WMO, office, zone-name, and publication checks.UnavailableNo source time
Coastal Data Information Program THREDDS
No exact named CDIP MOP mapping or usable coastal product is available for this spot.UnavailableNo source time
Monterey Canyon Outer, CA (156) buoy 46236 · 14 km from Asilomar
Monterey Canyon Outer, CA (156) buoy 46236 · 14 km from Asilomar; NDBC significant wave height (Hs) from a buoy in this spot’s checked seaward hemisphere; not breaking-wave face heightCurrentSep 22, 5:00 PM PDT
NOAA CO-OPS Tides and Currents API
NOAA Monterey 9413450 · 4.9 km from Asilomar; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.CurrentSep 22, 5:35 PM PDT
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 4:45 PM PDT
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 4:45 PM PDT
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.