Texas Gulf Coast · Wednesday, Sep 23

South Padre Island

NWS BRO · TXZ451-454-455; official reef-face range: 2–3 ft

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 7:30 PM CDT

When to go

8:00 AM–10:00 AM

Windy · Low confidence

2.0–2.1 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 8.9 kt · onshore

Forecast details

This is the best time in the forecast, though wind may make it choppy.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

8:00 AM–10:00 AM · America/Chicago
Unfavorable wind · up to 8.9 kt · reported gusts up to 11.1 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. The selected wind is unfavorable for this break.
Offshore waves: 2.0–2.1 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 6:45 PM CDT. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 4.3 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 12 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind E 7.4 kt

Tide 1.5 ft falling

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellE 1.9 ft @ 4sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/ChicagoMarine grid 26.7083, -97.2917 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea2.1 ft @ 4.4sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Chicago

Model windE 7.4 ktonshoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Chicago7.4 kt onshore component

Tide1.5 ftfallingNOAA Port Isabel 8779770 · 68.1 km from South Padre Island · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 7:31 PM CDT · provider issue time unavailable77% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

NWS BRO · TXZ451-454-455

Rip Current Risk*...........Low. Surf Height.................Around 2 feet. Thunderstorm Potential**....Low. Weather.....................Sunny. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. High Temperature............Around 90. Winds.......................Northeast winds around 5 mph, increasing to around 15 mph in the afternoon. Tides... None.

WEDNESDAYOfficial breaking-surf height for Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-Cameron Island; forecast-zone range, not a calibrated break transformationIssued Sep 22, 2:00 AM CDT

NWS BRO · TXZ451-454-455

Surf height 2 to 3 feet. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 80s. East winds around 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHTOfficial breaking-surf height for Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-Cameron Island; forecast-zone range, not a calibrated break transformationIssued Sep 22, 2:00 AM CDT

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for South Padre Island
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	ESE 11.1 ktonshore	1 ftrising	E 2.1 ft @ 4s
1 AM	ESE 10.9 ktonshore	1 ftrising	E 2.4 ft @ 4s
2 AM	ESE 9.2 ktonshore	1.5 ftrising	E 2.4 ft @ 4s
3 AM	ESE 8.7 ktonshore	1.5 ftrising	E 2.3 ft @ 4s
4 AM	ESE 7.9 ktonshore	1.5 ftnear high	E 2.3 ft @ 4s
5 AM	ESE 7.9 ktonshore	1.5 ftfalling	E 2.2 ft @ 4s
6 AM	E 7.1 ktonshore	1.5 ftfalling	E 2.1 ft @ 4s
7 AM	E 6.6 ktonshore	1.5 ftfalling	E 2.0 ft @ 4s
8 AM	E 7.4 ktonshore	1.5 ftfalling	E 1.9 ft @ 4s
9 AM	E 7.8 ktonshore	1.5 ftfalling	E 1.8 ft @ 4s
10 AM	E 8.9 ktonshore	1.5 ftfalling	E 1.7 ft @ 4s
11 AM	ENE 10.3 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	ESE 1.4 ft @ 4s
Noon	ENE 10.8 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	ESE 1.2 ft @ 4s
1 PM	ENE 9.9 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	ESE 1.0 ft @ 5s
2 PM	ENE 11.1 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	ESE 0.9 ft @ 5s
3 PM	ENE 12.7 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	ESE 0.7 ft @ 5s
4 PM	ENE 14.2 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	ESE 0.6 ft @ 5s
5 PM	ENE 13.5 ktonshore	1 ftfalling	ESE 0.7 ft @ 5s
6 PM	E 14 ktonshore	0.5 ftfalling	ESE 0.8 ft @ 5s
7 PM	E 11.9 ktonshore	0.5 ftnear low	ESE 0.9 ft @ 5s
8 PM	E 12.3 ktonshore	0.5 ftnear low	ESE 1.2 ft @ 5s
9 PM	E 13.2 ktonshore	0.5 ftrising	E 1.7 ft @ 4s
10 PM	E 12.6 ktonshore	1 ftrising	E 2.1 ft @ 4s
11 PM	E 12.3 ktonshore	1 ftrising	E 2.3 ft @ 4s

12 AMUnavailable

WindESE 11.1 ktonshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellE 2.1 ft @ 4s

1 AMUnavailable

WindESE 10.9 ktonshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellE 2.4 ft @ 4s

2 AMUnavailable

WindESE 9.2 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellE 2.4 ft @ 4s

3 AMUnavailable

WindESE 8.7 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellE 2.3 ft @ 4s

4 AMUnavailable

WindESE 7.9 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftnear highOffshore swellE 2.3 ft @ 4s

5 AMUnavailable

WindESE 7.9 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellE 2.2 ft @ 4s

6 AMUnavailable

WindE 7.1 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellE 2.1 ft @ 4s

7 AMUnavailable

WindE 6.6 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellE 2.0 ft @ 4s

8 AMUnavailable

WindE 7.4 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellE 1.9 ft @ 4s

9 AMUnavailable

WindE 7.8 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellE 1.8 ft @ 4s

10 AMUnavailable

WindE 8.9 ktonshoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellE 1.7 ft @ 4s

11 AMUnavailable

WindENE 10.3 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 1.4 ft @ 4s

NoonUnavailable

WindENE 10.8 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 1.2 ft @ 4s

1 PMUnavailable

WindENE 9.9 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 1.0 ft @ 5s

2 PMUnavailable

WindENE 11.1 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 0.9 ft @ 5s

3 PMUnavailable

WindENE 12.7 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 0.7 ft @ 5s

4 PMUnavailable

WindENE 14.2 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 0.6 ft @ 5s

5 PMUnavailable

WindENE 13.5 ktonshoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 0.7 ft @ 5s

6 PMUnavailable

WindE 14 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 0.8 ft @ 5s

7 PMUnavailable

WindE 11.9 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftnear lowOffshore swellESE 0.9 ft @ 5s

8 PMUnavailable

WindE 12.3 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftnear lowOffshore swellESE 1.2 ft @ 5s

9 PMUnavailable

WindE 13.2 ktonshoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellE 1.7 ft @ 4s

10 PMUnavailable

WindE 12.6 ktonshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellE 2.1 ft @ 4s

11 PMUnavailable

WindE 12.3 ktonshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellE 2.3 ft @ 4s

Tide

NOAA Port Isabel 8779770 · 68.1 km from South Padre Island · MLLW

Interpolated tide height Recommended window

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach/jetty break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 26.67, -97.29.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 90° · Location provenance

Model request point: South Padre Island (26.67, -97.29). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 4/4 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A · US_GULF · spot-level model point

NWS BRO · TXZ451-454-455; official reef-face range2–3 ftCurrent · Sep 22, 2:00 AM CDT

NWS BRO · TXZ451-454-455
NWS BRO · TXZ451-454-455; Official breaking-surf height for Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-Cameron Island; forecast-zone range, not a calibrated break transformationCurrentSep 22, 2:00 AM CDT
NOAA NDBC real-time station files
Current buoy observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableNo source time
NOAA CO-OPS Tides and Currents API
NOAA Port Isabel 8779770 · 68.1 km from South Padre Island; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.CurrentSep 22, 7:31 PM CDT
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 6:45 PM CDT
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 6:45 PM CDT
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.