St. Thomas North Coast · Wednesday, Sep 23

Hull Bay

NWS San Juan · VIZ001; official reef-face range: 2–2 ft

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 8:30 PM AST

When to go

12:00 PM–2:00 PM

Looks good · Low confidence

2.6–2.6 ft · Offshore waves · not face height

Wind: 11.3 kt · offshore

Forecast details

Wind blowing out to sea should help the waves stay clean.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

12:00 PM–2:00 PM · America/St_Thomas
Moderate offshore wind · up to 11.3 kt · reported gusts up to 15.2 kt
Offshore waves: 2.6–2.6 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 7:45 PM AST. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 0.7 km from the mapped spot. Provider grid resolution is not established for this response.
Reference model hour: 11 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind E 11.4 kt

Tide 1 ft falling

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellSE 1.4 ft @ 4sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/St_ThomasMarine grid 18.3750, -64.9583 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea2.2 ft @ 4.8sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/St_Thomas

Model windE 11.4 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/St_Thomas4.9 kt offshore component

Tide1 ftfallingNOAA Magens Bay 9751693 · 3 km from spot · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 8:33 PM AST · provider issue time unavailable67% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

NWS San Juan · VIZ001

Rip Current Risk*...........Low. Surf Height.................Around 2 feet. Weather.....................Mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Winds.......................East winds around 15 mph.

WEDNESDAYOfficial breaking-surf height for St Thomas, St John and adjacent islands VI; island-zone forecast, not a calibrated break transformationIssued Sep 22, 3:43 AM AST

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Hull Bay
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	E 12.2 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	SE 1.2 ft @ 4s
1 AM	ESE 12.4 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	SE 1.4 ft @ 4s
2 AM	ESE 10.7 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	SE 1.6 ft @ 4s
3 AM	E 10.8 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	SE 1.5 ft @ 4s
4 AM	E 11.1 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	SE 1.5 ft @ 4s
5 AM	E 11.1 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	SE 1.4 ft @ 4s
6 AM	E 10.7 ktcross-shore	1 ftnear high	SE 1.4 ft @ 4s
7 AM	E 10.6 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	SE 1.4 ft @ 4s
8 AM	E 11.4 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	SE 1.4 ft @ 4s
9 AM	E 11.5 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	SE 1.2 ft @ 5s
10 AM	E 13.5 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	SSE 1.1 ft @ 6s
11 AM	ESE 4.8 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	SSE 0.9 ft @ 7s
Noon	ESE 8.1 ktoffshore	0.5 ftrising	SSE 1.3 ft @ 6s
1 PM	SE 9.8 ktoffshore	0.5 ftrising	SE 1.7 ft @ 5s
2 PM	ESE 11.3 ktoffshore	0.5 ftrising	ESE 2.1 ft @ 4s
3 PM	ESE 10.6 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	ESE 2.1 ft @ 4s
4 PM	ESE 14.5 ktoffshore	1 ftrising	ESE 2.2 ft @ 4s
5 PM	ESE 9.8 ktoffshore	1 ftrising	ESE 2.2 ft @ 4s
6 PM	SE 9.8 ktoffshore	1.5 ftrising	ESE 2.1 ft @ 4s
7 PM	SE 9.4 ktoffshore	1.5 ftfalling	ESE 2.0 ft @ 4s
8 PM	ESE 8.2 ktoffshore	1.5 ftfalling	ESE 1.9 ft @ 4s
9 PM	ESE 7.6 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ESE 1.8 ft @ 4s
10 PM	E 8.3 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ESE 1.7 ft @ 4s
11 PM	E 8.4 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ESE 1.6 ft @ 4s

12 AMUnavailable

WindE 12.2 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellSE 1.2 ft @ 4s

1 AMUnavailable

WindESE 12.4 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellSE 1.4 ft @ 4s

2 AMUnavailable

WindESE 10.7 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellSE 1.6 ft @ 4s

3 AMUnavailable

WindE 10.8 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellSE 1.5 ft @ 4s

4 AMUnavailable

WindE 11.1 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellSE 1.5 ft @ 4s

5 AMUnavailable

WindE 11.1 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellSE 1.4 ft @ 4s

6 AMUnavailable

WindE 10.7 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftnear highOffshore swellSE 1.4 ft @ 4s

7 AMUnavailable

WindE 10.6 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellSE 1.4 ft @ 4s

8 AMUnavailable

WindE 11.4 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellSE 1.4 ft @ 4s

9 AMUnavailable

WindE 11.5 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellSE 1.2 ft @ 5s

10 AMUnavailable

WindE 13.5 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellSSE 1.1 ft @ 6s

11 AMUnavailable

WindESE 4.8 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellSSE 0.9 ft @ 7s

NoonUnavailable

WindESE 8.1 ktoffshoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellSSE 1.3 ft @ 6s

1 PMUnavailable

WindSE 9.8 ktoffshoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellSE 1.7 ft @ 5s

2 PMUnavailable

WindESE 11.3 ktoffshoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 2.1 ft @ 4s

3 PMUnavailable

WindESE 10.6 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 2.1 ft @ 4s

4 PMUnavailable

WindESE 14.5 ktoffshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 2.2 ft @ 4s

5 PMUnavailable

WindESE 9.8 ktoffshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 2.2 ft @ 4s

6 PMUnavailable

WindSE 9.8 ktoffshoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellESE 2.1 ft @ 4s

7 PMUnavailable

WindSE 9.4 ktoffshoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 2.0 ft @ 4s

8 PMUnavailable

WindESE 8.2 ktoffshoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 1.9 ft @ 4s

9 PMUnavailable

WindESE 7.6 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 1.8 ft @ 4s

10 PMUnavailable

WindE 8.3 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 1.7 ft @ 4s

11 PMUnavailable

WindE 8.4 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellESE 1.6 ft @ 4s

Tide

NOAA Magens Bay 9751693 · 3 km from spot · MLLW

Interpolated tide height Recommended window

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Reef break. Government of the U.S. Virgin Islands BEACH monitoring coordinate for named Hull Bay; north-facing reef/bay exposure.

Mapped spot coordinate: 18.37043, -64.95313.

St. Thomas · north · Ocean-facing bearing 337.5° · Location provenance

Model request point: Hull Bay (18.37043, -64.95313). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 4/5 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A+ · US_PR_VI · spot-level model point

NWS San Juan · VIZ001; official reef-face range2–2 ftCurrent · Sep 22, 3:43 AM AST

NWS San Juan · VIZ001
NWS San Juan · VIZ001; Official breaking-surf height for St Thomas, St John and adjacent islands VI; island-zone forecast, not a calibrated break transformationCurrentSep 22, 3:43 AM AST
CARICOOS ERDDAP
The assigned CARICOOS observation is stale or does not cover the selected date.UnavailableNo source time
NOAA NDBC real-time station files
Current buoy observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableNo source time
NOAA CO-OPS Tides and Currents API
NOAA Magens Bay 9751693 · 3 km from spot; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.CurrentSep 22, 8:33 PM AST
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:45 PM AST
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 7:45 PM AST
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.