Maui · Wednesday, Sep 23

Paia Bay

Maui north and west shore forecast; official shore-facing range: 3–5 ft

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 2:20 PM HST

When to go

7:00 AM–9:00 AM

Strong wind — difficult conditions · Low confidence

3–5 ft · Official surf · whole shore and forecast period · Maui north and west shore forecast; official shore-facing range

Strong wind: 16.5 kt · cross-shore

Cautions

Strong wind or gusts up to 23.7 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.
Strong wind or gusts up to 27.4 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.
Strong wind or gusts up to 31.9 kt can make the session difficult; being first in the list does not make conditions good.

Forecast details

The official forecast calls for surf along this coast.
This is the best time in the forecast, though wind may make it choppy.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

7:00 AM–9:00 AM · Pacific/Honolulu
Strong wind · up to 16.5 kt · reported gusts up to 31.9 kt
Caution: This is the best available wind comparison, not a favorable-wind label. Strong wind remains in the selected evidence.
Offshore waves: 6.8–6.8 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 1:30 PM HST. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Forecast confidence

Returned marine grid point is 13.3 km from the mapped spot. MFWAM is approximately 8 km resolution.
Reference model hour: 18 hours from now; historical residuals do not measure forecast lead-time error.
No accepted local model for these inputs: missing history, unsupported direction/period/height, or failed historical validation.
A mapped coordinate does not establish nearshore grid resolution or terrain/shelter accuracy.

Wind ENE 14.4 kt

Tide 1 ft rising

Wave, wind and tide details

Offshore model swellE 4.1 ft @ 8sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · Pacific/HonoluluMarine grid 21.0417, -156.3750 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea6.8 ft @ 7.5sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · Pacific/Honolulu

Model windENE 14.4 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · Pacific/Honolulu1.6 kt onshore component

Tide1 ftrisingNOAA Kahului, Kahului Harbor 1615680 · 9.0 km from Paia Bay · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 2:29 PM HST · provider issue time unavailable26% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Surf and wind

Recommended window: No recommended window

Breaking surf is not reliably resolved. Hourly offshore swell and wind inputs are listed below.

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Paia Bay
Time	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
12 AM	ENE 14.3 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftnear high	ENE 4.8 ft @ 7s
1 AM	ENE 13.6 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	ENE 4.8 ft @ 7s
2 AM	ENE 12.5 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ENE 4.9 ft @ 7s
3 AM	ENE 12 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	ENE 4.9 ft @ 7s
4 AM	ENE 12.9 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	ENE 5.0 ft @ 7s
5 AM	ENE 12.9 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftfalling	ENE 5.1 ft @ 7s
6 AM	ENE 11.9 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftnear low	ENE 4.7 ft @ 8s
7 AM	ENE 13.2 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	ENE 4.5 ft @ 8s
8 AM	ENE 14.4 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	E 4.1 ft @ 8s
9 AM	ENE 16.5 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	E 3.9 ft @ 8s
10 AM	ENE 18.9 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftrising	E 3.7 ft @ 8s
11 AM	ENE 20.1 ktcross-shore	2 ftrising	E 3.5 ft @ 8s
Noon	ENE 20.6 ktcross-shore	2 ftrising	E 3.5 ft @ 8s
1 PM	ENE 21.2 ktcross-shore	2.5 ftnear high	E 3.4 ft @ 8s
2 PM	ENE 20.3 ktcross-shore	2 ftfalling	E 3.4 ft @ 8s
3 PM	ENE 18.9 ktcross-shore	2 ftfalling	E 3.1 ft @ 9s
4 PM	ENE 18.6 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	E 2.8 ft @ 9s
5 PM	ENE 17.6 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftfalling	E 2.4 ft @ 9s
6 PM	ENE 16.4 ktcross-shore	1 ftfalling	E 2.6 ft @ 9s
7 PM	ENE 15.8 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftnear low	E 2.8 ft @ 9s
8 PM	ENE 16.1 ktcross-shore	0.5 ftrising	E 2.9 ft @ 9s
9 PM	ENE 16.3 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	E 2.9 ft @ 8s
10 PM	ENE 16 ktcross-shore	1 ftrising	E 3.0 ft @ 8s
11 PM	ENE 15 ktcross-shore	1.5 ftrising	E 3.0 ft @ 8s

12 AMUnavailable

WindENE 14.3 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftnear highOffshore swellENE 4.8 ft @ 7s

1 AMUnavailable

WindENE 13.6 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 4.8 ft @ 7s

2 AMUnavailable

WindENE 12.5 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 4.9 ft @ 7s

3 AMUnavailable

WindENE 12 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 4.9 ft @ 7s

4 AMUnavailable

WindENE 12.9 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 5.0 ft @ 7s

5 AMUnavailable

WindENE 12.9 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftfallingOffshore swellENE 5.1 ft @ 7s

6 AMUnavailable

WindENE 11.9 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftnear lowOffshore swellENE 4.7 ft @ 8s

7 AMUnavailable

WindENE 13.2 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellENE 4.5 ft @ 8s

8 AMUnavailable

WindENE 14.4 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellE 4.1 ft @ 8s

9 AMUnavailable

WindENE 16.5 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellE 3.9 ft @ 8s

10 AMUnavailable

WindENE 18.9 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellE 3.7 ft @ 8s

11 AMUnavailable

WindENE 20.1 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftrisingOffshore swellE 3.5 ft @ 8s

NoonUnavailable

WindENE 20.6 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftrisingOffshore swellE 3.5 ft @ 8s

1 PMUnavailable

WindENE 21.2 ktcross-shoreTide2.5 ftnear highOffshore swellE 3.4 ft @ 8s

2 PMUnavailable

WindENE 20.3 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftfallingOffshore swellE 3.4 ft @ 8s

3 PMUnavailable

WindENE 18.9 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftfallingOffshore swellE 3.1 ft @ 9s

4 PMUnavailable

WindENE 18.6 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellE 2.8 ft @ 9s

5 PMUnavailable

WindENE 17.6 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftfallingOffshore swellE 2.4 ft @ 9s

6 PMUnavailable

WindENE 16.4 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellE 2.6 ft @ 9s

7 PMUnavailable

WindENE 15.8 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftnear lowOffshore swellE 2.8 ft @ 9s

8 PMUnavailable

WindENE 16.1 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftrisingOffshore swellE 2.9 ft @ 9s

9 PMUnavailable

WindENE 16.3 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellE 2.9 ft @ 8s

10 PMUnavailable

WindENE 16 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellE 3.0 ft @ 8s

11 PMUnavailable

WindENE 15 ktcross-shoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellE 3.0 ft @ 8s

Tide

NOAA Kahului, Kahului Harbor 1615680 · 9.0 km from Paia Bay · MLLW

Interpolated tide height Recommended window

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Beach break. Named break currentLocation coordinate; north-northwest-facing orientation retained from reviewed catalog geometry.

Mapped spot coordinate: 20.9223, -156.3876.

Maui · north · Ocean-facing bearing 337.5° · Location provenance

Model request point: Paia Bay (20.9223, -156.3876). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 4/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A+ · US_HAWAII · spot-level model point

Maui north and west shore forecast; official shore-facing range3–5 ftCurrent · Sep 22, 8:56 AM HST

US National Weather Service Surf Zone Forecast
Maui north and west shore forecast; official breaking-surf rangeCurrentSep 22, 8:56 AM HST
NWS Honolulu Surf Observations
Current human surf observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableNo source time
PacIOOS ERDDAP
Wave buoy observations and regional ocean datasets; market adapter or station mapping not connectedUnavailableNo source time
Pauwela buoy 51205 (regional north-shore observation)
Current buoy observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.Not applicableSep 22, 1:56 PM HST
Coastal Data Information Program THREDDS
No exact named CDIP mapping is available.UnavailableNo source time
Kahului Harbor station 1615680 (MLLW)
NOAA Kahului, Kahului Harbor 1615680 · 9.0 km from Paia Bay; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.CurrentSep 22, 2:29 PM HST
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 1:30 PM HST
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 1:30 PM HST
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.