Santa Cruz and Monterey Bay · Right now

Carmel Beach

Updated Tue, Sep 22, 5:30 PM PDT

When to go

Around 7:00 PM

Looks good · Moderate confidence

3.7–3.7 ft · Coastal waves · not surf height

Wind: 2.6 kt · cross-shore

Forecast details

Waves are forecast to reach this beach.
Light wind should keep the water smoother.

Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

At 6:00 PM · America/Los_Angeles
Light wind · up to 4.0 kt · reported gusts up to 7.6 kt
Coastal waves at about 10 m depth: 3.6–3.6 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.
Wind source time: Sep 22, 4:45 PM PDT. This is not the model run issue time.

How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Wind NW 4 kt

Tide 4 ft rising

Wave, wind and tide details

CDIP coastal waveW 3.6 ft @ 8sECMWF forecast valid Sep 22, 6:00 PM PDTMO644 · significant wave height at 15.3 m depth · not breaking surfCDIP issued Sep 22, 2:55 PM PDT · upstream model cycle not providedHourly energy interpolation between 3-hour forecast samples; period/direction from nearest sampleSpectral split: ≥10 s 1.9 ft · <10 s 3.0 ft

Coastal period bands

20 s and longer: 0.4 ft · energy-weighted direction 248°14–20 s: 1.3 ft · energy-weighted direction 248°10–14 s: 1.4 ft · energy-weighted direction 260°Under 10 s: 3.0 ft · energy-weighted direction 278°Band heights combine as energy, not by addition. Period bands are not separately identified swell systems. Forecast omits wave periods shorter than about 4 s.

Offshore model swellNW 5.0 ft @ 6sValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Los_AngelesMarine grid 36.5417, -121.9583 · offshore model, not a local measurement

Offshore model sea6.8 ft @ 9.5sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Los_Angeles

Model windNW 4 ktcross-shoreValid 2026-09-22 18:00 · America/Los_Angeles2.4 kt onshore component

Tide4 ftrisingNOAA Monterey 9413450 · 7.4 km from Carmel Beach · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 5:36 PM PDT · provider issue time unavailable62% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

Monterey Canyon Outer, CA (156) buoy 46236 · 23 km from Carmel Beach5.2 ft @ 13sNDBC significant wave height (Hs) from a buoy in this spot’s checked seaward hemisphere; not breaking-wave face heightObserved Sep 22, 5:00 PM PDT

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Coastal waves and wind

CDIP significant wave height at about 10 m depth. Gaps remain gaps; no breaking-wave range is implied.

Buoy-driven nowcast for available past hours; labeled coastal forecasts for future hours. Changes of source can cause discontinuities. Values and source labels are listed below.Wind arrows point from the reported direction

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Carmel Beach
Time	Coastal waves · ~10 m	Wind	Tide	Offshore swell
5 PM	W 3.4 ft @ 8s	WNW 4.7 ktonshore	3.5 ftrising	NW 4.9 ft @ 6s
6 PM	W 3.6 ft @ 8s	NW 4 ktcross-shore	4 ftrising	NW 5.0 ft @ 6s
7 PM	W 3.7 ft @ 8s	NNW 2.6 ktcross-shore	4.5 ftrising	WNW 5.1 ft @ 6s
8 PM	W 3.8 ft @ 8s	NNW 3 ktcross-shore	5 ftnear high	WNW 5.2 ft @ 6s

5 PM3.4 ft coastal waves

W 8s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindWNW 4.7 ktonshoreTide3.5 ftrisingOffshore swellNW 4.9 ft @ 6s

6 PM3.6 ft coastal waves

W 8s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNW 4 ktcross-shoreTide4 ftrisingOffshore swellNW 5.0 ft @ 6s

7 PM3.7 ft coastal waves

W 8s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNNW 2.6 ktcross-shoreTide4.5 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 5.1 ft @ 6s

8 PM3.8 ft coastal waves

W 8s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNNW 3 ktcross-shoreTide5 ftnear highOffshore swellWNW 5.2 ft @ 6s

Tide

NOAA Monterey 9413450 · 7.4 km from Carmel Beach · MLLW

Interpolated tide height Recommended window

About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Sandbar break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 36.55, -121.93.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 270° · Location provenance

Model request point: Carmel Beach (36.55, -121.93). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

CDIP MO644: 36.5506, -121.9392 · 15.31 m depth · 259° shore normal · shore type 1 · 889 m transect. CDIP named Carmel City Beach output point; exact named beach and west-facing transect. CDIP metadata.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 5/6 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A · US_CA · spot-level model point

Official breaking-surf report not connected for Santa Cruz and Monterey BayUnavailableUnavailable · Unavailable

US National Weather Service Surf Zone Forecast
No current identified MTR/LOX surf product passed WMO, office, zone-name, and publication checks.UnavailableNo source time
Coastal Data Information Program THREDDS
CDIP MO644 (36.55058, -121.93917; 15.31 m depth); CDIP named Carmel City Beach output point; exact named beach and west-facing transect.; significant wave height at mapped coastal depth, not breaking surfCurrentSep 22, 2:55 PM PDT
Monterey Canyon Outer, CA (156) buoy 46236 · 23 km from Carmel Beach
Monterey Canyon Outer, CA (156) buoy 46236 · 23 km from Carmel Beach; NDBC significant wave height (Hs) from a buoy in this spot’s checked seaward hemisphere; not breaking-wave face heightCurrentSep 22, 5:00 PM PDT
NOAA CO-OPS Tides and Currents API
NOAA Monterey 9413450 · 7.4 km from Carmel Beach; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.CurrentSep 22, 5:36 PM PDT
Open-Meteo Marine API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 4:45 PM PDT
Open-Meteo Weather API
1 of 1 configured model points availableCurrentSep 22, 4:45 PM PDT
Surf-Forecast public pages
Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallbackNot applicableNo source time
Surfline public spot pages
Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadataNot applicableNo source time

How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.