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← Santa Cruz and Monterey Bay report

Santa Cruz and Monterey Bay · Wednesday, Sep 23

Carmel Beach

When to go

Around 6:00 PM

Looks good · Moderate confidence

3.9–3.9 ft · Coastal waves · not surf height

Wind: 3.4 kt · cross-shore

Forecast details
  • Waves are forecast to reach this beach.
  • Light wind should keep the water smoother.
Other wind windows

Plan around the wind

The best available upcoming daylight wind sample to compare with the wave evidence. This compares wind only; wave size, tide suitability, and hazards can change your choice.

  • 4:00 PM–6:00 PM · America/Los_Angeles

    Light wind · up to 5.0 kt · reported gusts up to 9.7 kt

    Coastal waves at about 10 m depth: 3.9–4.0 ft across the period. Surf height unavailable. Tide data available; check the local tide response.

    Wind source time: Sep 22, 4:45 PM PDT. This is not the model run issue time.
How these periods are chosen

The planner prefers three consecutive hourly samples covering two daylight hours, but retains shorter one- or two-sample evidence when that is all the forecast provides. Light wind means at most 6 kt. Moderate offshore means at most 12 kt from land toward the sea when shore orientation is verified. Strong wind or known gusts of 20 kt or more remain visible as cautions instead of making the entire comparison disappear. These are comparison labels, not locally tested surf-quality or safety ratings. Missing gusts remain unknown. Terrain shelter, currents, closures, and your ability are not assessed.

Wind NE 5.4 kt

Tide 3 ft rising

Wave, wind and tide details
CDIP coastal waveW 4.4 ft @ 11sECMWF forecast valid Sep 23, 8:00 AM PDTMO644 · significant wave height at 15.3 m depth · not breaking surfCDIP issued Sep 22, 2:55 PM PDT · upstream model cycle not providedSpectral split: ≥10 s 2.4 ft · <10 s 3.7 ft
Coastal period bands20 s and longer: 0.4 ft · energy-weighted direction 248°14–20 s: 1.1 ft · energy-weighted direction 248°10–14 s: 2.1 ft · energy-weighted direction 264°Under 10 s: 3.7 ft · energy-weighted direction 277°Band heights combine as energy, not by addition. Period bands are not separately identified swell systems. Forecast omits wave periods shorter than about 4 s.
Offshore model swellWNW 6.6 ft @ 7sValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Los_AngelesMarine grid 36.5417, -121.9583 · offshore model, not a local measurement
Offshore model sea7.1 ft @ 9.5sSignificant wave height including wind waves and swell; not breaking surfValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Los_Angeles
Model windNE 5.4 ktoffshoreValid 2026-09-23 08:00 · America/Los_Angeles4.5 kt offshore component
Tide3 ftrisingNOAA Monterey 9413450 · 7.4 km from Carmel Beach · predicted height relative to MLLWRetrieved Sep 22, 5:35 PM PDT · provider issue time unavailable73% of adjacent local low–high range · descriptive, not a safety rating

Surf height unavailable. Coastal and offshore waves are not breaking-wave heights.

Coastal waves and wind

CDIP significant wave height at about 10 m depth. Gaps remain gaps; no breaking-wave range is implied.

Coastal significant wave height and wind by hour for Carmel Beach; not breaking surf.

Buoy-driven nowcast for available past hours; labeled coastal forecasts for future hours. Changes of source can cause discontinuities. Values and source labels are listed below.Wind arrows point from the reported direction

Hourly forecast

Hourly surf forecast for Carmel Beach
TimeCoastal waves · ~10 mWindTideOffshore swell
W 4.3 ft @ 8sN 4.9 ktcross-shore2.5 ftfallingWNW 5.6 ft @ 6s
W 4.3 ft @ 8sN 5.3 ktcross-shore2 ftfallingNW 5.8 ft @ 6s
W 4.4 ft @ 8sN 4.5 ktcross-shore1 ftfallingNW 5.8 ft @ 6s
W 4.4 ft @ 8sNNE 3.8 ktcross-shore0.5 ftnear lowNW 6.1 ft @ 7s
W 4.4 ft @ 11sNE 4 ktoffshore1 ftrisingWNW 6.4 ft @ 7s
W 4.5 ft @ 11sNE 4.4 ktoffshore1.5 ftrisingWNW 6.7 ft @ 7s
W 4.4 ft @ 11sNE 4.9 ktoffshore2 ftrisingWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
W 4.4 ft @ 11sNE 5.2 ktoffshore2.5 ftrisingWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
W 4.4 ft @ 11sNE 5.4 ktoffshore3 ftrisingWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
W 4.4 ft @ 11sNE 5.6 ktoffshore4 ftrisingWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
W 4.3 ft @ 11sNE 4.8 ktoffshore4 ftfallingWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
W 4.3 ft @ 11sNNE 5.3 ktcross-shore4 ftfallingWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
W 4.2 ft @ 11sN 5.3 ktcross-shore3.5 ftfallingWNW 6.5 ft @ 7s
W 4.2 ft @ 11sNNW 6 ktcross-shore3 ftfallingWNW 6.4 ft @ 7s
W 4.1 ft @ 11sNW 5.9 ktcross-shore2.5 ftfallingWNW 6.3 ft @ 7s
W 4.1 ft @ 11sNW 5.7 ktcross-shore2 ftnear lowWNW 6.2 ft @ 7s
W 4.0 ft @ 11sNW 5 ktcross-shore2.5 ftrisingWNW 6.1 ft @ 7s
W 4.0 ft @ 11sNNW 4.3 ktcross-shore3 ftrisingWNW 6.0 ft @ 7s
W 3.9 ft @ 11sNNW 3.4 ktcross-shore3.5 ftrisingWNW 6.0 ft @ 7s
W 3.9 ft @ 11sE 2.2 ktoffshore4 ftrisingWNW 5.9 ft @ 7s
W 3.8 ft @ 11sSE 3.7 ktcross-shore4.5 ftrisingWNW 5.8 ft @ 7s
W 3.8 ft @ 11sSW 1.9 ktonshore5 ftfallingWNW 5.7 ft @ 7s
W 3.8 ft @ 11sNNW 3.1 ktcross-shore4.5 ftfallingWNW 5.5 ft @ 7s
W 3.7 ft @ 11sN 5.7 ktcross-shore3.5 ftfallingWNW 5.4 ft @ 7s
4.3 ft coastal waves

W 8s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindN 4.9 ktcross-shoreTide2.5 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 5.6 ft @ 6s
4.3 ft coastal waves

W 8s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindN 5.3 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftfallingOffshore swellNW 5.8 ft @ 6s
4.4 ft coastal waves

W 8s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindN 4.5 ktcross-shoreTide1 ftfallingOffshore swellNW 5.8 ft @ 6s
4.4 ft coastal waves

W 8s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNNE 3.8 ktcross-shoreTide0.5 ftnear lowOffshore swellNW 6.1 ft @ 7s
4.4 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNE 4 ktoffshoreTide1 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.4 ft @ 7s
4.5 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNE 4.4 ktoffshoreTide1.5 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.7 ft @ 7s
4.4 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNE 4.9 ktoffshoreTide2 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
4.4 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNE 5.2 ktoffshoreTide2.5 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
4.4 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNE 5.4 ktoffshoreTide3 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
4.4 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNE 5.6 ktoffshoreTide4 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
4.3 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNE 4.8 ktoffshoreTide4 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
4.3 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNNE 5.3 ktcross-shoreTide4 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 6.6 ft @ 7s
4.2 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindN 5.3 ktcross-shoreTide3.5 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 6.5 ft @ 7s
4.2 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNNW 6 ktcross-shoreTide3 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 6.4 ft @ 7s
4.1 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNW 5.9 ktcross-shoreTide2.5 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 6.3 ft @ 7s
4.1 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNW 5.7 ktcross-shoreTide2 ftnear lowOffshore swellWNW 6.2 ft @ 7s
4.0 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNW 5 ktcross-shoreTide2.5 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.1 ft @ 7s
4.0 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNNW 4.3 ktcross-shoreTide3 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.0 ft @ 7s
3.9 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNNW 3.4 ktcross-shoreTide3.5 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 6.0 ft @ 7s
3.9 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindE 2.2 ktoffshoreTide4 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 5.9 ft @ 7s
3.8 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindSE 3.7 ktcross-shoreTide4.5 ftrisingOffshore swellWNW 5.8 ft @ 7s
3.8 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindSW 1.9 ktonshoreTide5 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 5.7 ft @ 7s
3.8 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindNNW 3.1 ktcross-shoreTide4.5 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 5.5 ft @ 7s
3.7 ft coastal waves

W 11s · ECMWF forecast · about 10 m depth, not breaking surf.

WindN 5.7 ktcross-shoreTide3.5 ftfallingOffshore swellWNW 5.4 ft @ 7s

Tide

NOAA Monterey 9413450 · 7.4 km from Carmel Beach · MLLW

Tide height by hour for Carmel Beach. Approximate interpolation between predicted high and low events. Heights range from 0.5 to 5 feet.

Interpolated tide height Recommended window
About this spot

Model-grid forecast requested at the mapped coordinate; reef, headland, and nearshore transformations are unresolved. Sandbar break.

Mapped spot coordinate: 36.55, -121.93.

Mainland · Coast not verified · Ocean-facing bearing 270° · Location provenance

Model request point: Carmel Beach (36.55, -121.93). Model output times describe valid conditions; the provider does not expose the model run issue time in this response.

CDIP MO644: 36.5506, -121.9392 · 15.31 m depth · 259° shore normal · shore type 1 · 889 m transect. CDIP named Carmel City Beach output point; exact named beach and west-facing transect. CDIP metadata.

Forecast sources

Data coverage 4/5 sources

Source availability is not forecast accuracy. Where an empirical model passes historical testing, its error and interval coverage are shown above. Source count cannot increase that confidence.

Coverage tier A · US_CA · spot-level model point

Official breaking-surf report not connected for Santa Cruz and Monterey BayUnavailableUnavailable · Unavailable
  • US National Weather Service Surf Zone Forecast
    No current identified MTR/LOX surf product passed WMO, office, zone-name, and publication checks.    UnavailableNo source time
  • Coastal Data Information Program THREDDS
    CDIP MO644 (36.55058, -121.93917; 15.31 m depth); CDIP named Carmel City Beach output point; exact named beach and west-facing transect.; significant wave height at mapped coastal depth, not breaking surf    Current
  • NOAA NDBC real-time station files
    Current buoy observations are not forecasts for the selected future date.    Not applicableNo source time
  • NOAA CO-OPS Tides and Currents API
    NOAA Monterey 9413450 · 7.4 km from Carmel Beach; predicted high/low events above MLLW, converted to feet. Timestamp is retrieval time; provider issue time is not supplied.    Current
  • Open-Meteo Marine API
    1 of 1 configured model points available    Current
  • Open-Meteo Weather API
    1 of 1 configured model points available    Current
  • Surf-Forecast public pages
    Spot discovery and break-specific HTML fallback    Not applicableNo source time
  • Surfline public spot pages
    Break-specific comparison, cams, and metadata    Not applicableNo source time
How best guesses are made

Best guesses combine usable wave and wind evidence, with qualitative confidence and specific limitations. A missing tide or local surf-height model does not prevent useful guidance. Tide levels use the named station datum; their effect at this break remains uncertain. Wind direction is relative to the mapped beach orientation, without calibrated terrain or shelter effects. The comparison is a heuristic, not a measured quality rating.